Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
131 FXUS64 KHGX 251835 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - Rain and storm chances decrease after Thursday as a drier airmass filters in. However, a daily risk of isolated storms continues each afternoon due to sea/bay breeze and diurnal heating. - A plume of Saharan dust arrives late this weekend, potentially bringing hazy skies across SE TX. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 A messy afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing from southeast to northwest this afternoon. Most of this activity is driven by a weak mid-upper lvl disturbance moving across the region, combined with high PWs and diurnal heating. Showers and storms will continue to develop and move inland from the coast in the next few hours, before gradually tapering off late this afternoon/early evening as the main disturbance weakens/moves further to the west. Weak forcing aloft will be enough to allow some isolated activity this evening/tonight, mainly across our southwestern counties. The region will continue to be dominated by the high pressure centered across the southeastern CONUS. This high will shift a bit to the west, bringing a reinforcing surge of drier air into the region. As result, daily rain and storm chances will be decreasing in the next several days. However, will continue with a daily chance of isolated to scattered activity mainly in the afternoon due to sea/bay breeze. Highest probability of rain/storms will roughly be along and south of I-10 into the weekend. Will continue to monitor Sunday into early next week because of two factors: increasing rain chances due to a passing trough and hazy skies due to Saharan dust. Models are not in good agreement in terms of coverage and intensity of PoPs as some of them keep the disturbance to our south. However, the ECMWF brings the system further north, impacting our half southern counties Sunday into Monday. For now, will continue with 40 to 65% of rain/storm chances through this time frame with the greatest chances along the coast and Gulf waters. Another factor to watch and consider will be the arrival of the Saharan dust, mainly after Sunday. This pattern could potentially bring even drier air (inhibiting rain chances) and keep conditions a bit "cooler", mainly in the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across SE Texas. The activity has already picked up along the coast, and will be moving through the I-10 corridor by 14-15z. Because of the scatter-shot nature of the showers and storms, have predominately gone with SHRA VCTS for CXO southwards through the afternoon. UTS and CLL may also get storms, but have put them at a PROB30 since they are the furthest from the coast. If a thunderstorm happens to move over a terminal, then expect gustier winds and reductions in visibility due to heavy rainfall. Activity will end during the evening hours near sunset, but likely pick back up along the coast by daybreak Thursday. Other than some patchy low CIGs at CXO this morning that will scatter out within the next hour or so, VFR conditions will prevail with SCT low to mid level clouds. SE winds around 6-10kt will prevail through the day, becoming lighter overnight tonight. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Surface high pressure centered across the southeastern CONUS will continue to bring east to southeasterly flow across the Upper TX coast. A few embedded weak disturbances are the ones responsible of bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms today. This activity will gradually end by early this evening. However, isolated showers with a few embedded storms will be possible again tonight into early Thursday as the weak disturbance moves moves further inland. The best rain/storm chances will be along the Middle TX coast/Matagorda Bay region. Overall, a typical weather pattern is anticipated with showers and storms early in the morning, then moving further inland in the afternoon. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 3 - 4 ft seas can be expected in the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 72 91 72 / 40 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 86 75 90 75 / 70 10 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 81 89 82 / 70 20 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...JM