699
FXUS64 KHGX 021840
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly winds and elevated seas will lead to hazardous
  marine conditions through this afternoon.

- Chillier weather will persist through Wednesday with overnight lows
  in the 30s to lower 40s with portions of the Piney Woods
  possibly dropping to near freezing.

- Rain chances return Wednesday night through Friday morning due
  to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest
  coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely
  remaining along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Temperatures have yet to break out of the 40s across SE Texas. A
few sites are close to the mark (Columbus at 49F this hour).
Clearing skies will enhance radiational cooling for tonight and
allow temperatures to drop into the 30s to low 40s area wide. A
few spots in the northern Piney Woods may dip to or around
freezing.

High pressure will move off to the east on Wednesday and southerly
flow will bring the return of a warmer and more humid
airmass...just in time for a series of shortwaves to move through.
A little more on that shortly. Wednesday`s highs will recover
into the 60s for most of the area, with the coastal locations
breaking into the low 70s. With the return of moisture anticipate
PWAT values to increase to around 1.5" in response.

A series of shortwaves will move through Wednesday night through
Friday and interact with a deep layer of moisture. This will
bring an increase in showers with isolated thunderstorms for
Southeast Texas (higher probabilities for coastal areas).
Expecting generally widespread light to moderate rainfall;
however, could see some showers produce heavier rain rates that
may led to minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. WPC
does have the coastal areas (approximately Galveston and northward
along the coast) in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

A cold front is projected to move through Thursday, bringing
cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the
50s to low 60s across the area. Southerly/Southeasterly winds will
return Saturday and bring temperatures back up into the 60s area
wide through the weekend. Another front is progged to arrive
sometime late weekend into early next week; however, will avoid
getting too hung up on timing with it being late in the period.

Bailey



&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 509 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings across parts of the metro and coastal areas
will lift/scatter out in the next couple hours leaving prevailing
VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Moderate north winds
early this morning will diminish as the day progresses...eventually
veering to the ESE-SE overnight. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Winds continue to decrease this afternoon. Buoy 19 currently
reporting gusts to around 15 kts and waves around 5 feet. The
Small Craft Advisory will continue for the next couple of hours.

Conditions will improve Tuesday night into Wednesday with light to
occasionally moderate east to southeasterly winds. Another
approaching upper-level disturbance will bring increasing chances
of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night
through Friday evening. A coastal low is expected to develop on
Thursday inducing moderate to strong northeasterly winds Thursday
morning through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  37  61  50 /   0   0  10  70
Houston (IAH)  56  40  64  54 /   0   0  20 100
Galveston (GLS)  58  52  70  56 /   0   0  30 100

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey/Fowler