059
FXUS64 KHGX 100954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday`s Red Flag Warning for dangerous fire weather conditions
  is continued into Monday. Relatively poor RH recovery overnight
  will allow for critically low RH to emerge earlier in the day,
  and overlap with diminishing, but still gusty north winds. It
  remains important to avoid working with open flame and use
  extreme caution with any equipment that may cause sparks. And,
  as always, heed all local burn restrictions and burn bans.

- Some locations well north of the Houston metro could have their
  first light freeze of the season around dawn Monday morning, and
  again Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Warning is in
  effect for Houston, Trinity, Madison, Polk, and Walker Counties
  for this morning. A freeze warning may be needed again tonight
  if there are any new areas expected to see their first freeze.

- Hazardous marine conditions will be improving through the day
  today, but remain hazardous to small craft. A Gale Warning
  remains in effect for the coastal Gulf waters, but will be
  replaced by a small craft advisory as winds drop below the gale
  threshold. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for the Bays
  from through early Monday morning.

- Additionally, the strong north winds will generate low water
  conditions in the bays, particularly the upper portions of
  Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. For this, a low
  water advisory is in effect through at least Monday`s low tide
  cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

While we`re likely past the peak of our windy period in Southeast
Texas, gusty north winds will stick with us through a good chunk
of today, keeping today chilly but still very dry across the area.
We`ll have another opportunity for an overlap of those gusty winds
and critically dry air, and at an earlier point of the day than we
usually see for dangerous fire weather conditions. So, until those
winds calm down enough, a red flag warning will continue across
the area today. More on that in the Fire Weather section below.
For a full discussion on the hazardous marine conditions occurring
on the waters, we have a Marine section as well.

Look for high pressure to move east of the region tonight into
Tuesday morning, and for winds to diminish and flip around to
easterly, then southeasterly during the day. This will begin to
usher in some warmer, more humid Gulf air to coastal areas, though
very low RH will persist away from the coast. As the high moves
off though, the pressure gradient will tighten again, with gusty
south to southwest winds developing late in the afternoon. We may
need to keep an eye on locations well inland for potentially
another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

However, the longer onshore flow persists, the more we`ll see
humidity and warming trend return to the region. This looks to be
a fairly rapid process, with highs around 60 degrees today
becoming highs around 70 tomorrow, and up around 80 degrees for
Wednesday!

At night, this also means that while we`ll have a couple sharp
nights of cold weather, including the first freeze of the season
well north of the Houston metro this morning and/or tonight, that
should be about it for the threat of freezing temps. Come Tuesday
night, look for lows ranging from around 50 in the Piney Woods to
the middle 60s at the coast. By Friday night, coastal locations
may struggle to fall below 70 degrees. This of course, will be
just in time for our next cold front to arrive on the scene. This
will put an end to the warming trend. And unlike with the front we
just saw, the long stretch of onshore flow will help moisture
build enough for more substantial rain chances Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy
northerly winds will continue through the afternoon, but will be
on a gradual downward trend after ~18Z. Expect wind gusts up to
15-20 kt through the mid-afternoon, then taper off as winds
gradually subside. Winds will trend towards becoming light and
variable after sunset, but will pick up out of the south around
10-15 kt going into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Though past its peak, observations of gale conditions are still
being reported on coastal Gulf waters. The gale warning remains in
effect until those gale conditions fade away, at which point the
gale warning will be replaced by a small craft advisory. A small
craft advisory also continues on the bays through late tonight.

The strong north winds will also generate low water conditions
on area bays for Monday`s low tide cycle. The most severe low
water conditions are anticipated on upper portions of Galveston
Bay and Houston Ship Channel, where a low water advisory remains
in effect. Model guidance suggests this may even linger around
Manchester and Morgan`s Point into Tuesday`s low tide cycle, which
could potentially require an extension of the low water advisory
for another day.

Beyond today, less rough marine conditions should prevail for most
of the week ahead. Two periods to watch out for will be for a
stretch of elevated southerly to southwesterly winds Tuesday
night, and again this weekend when another cold front is expected
to arrive.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Though the strongest winds of this early week period have passed,
gusty winds will continue through a good portion of the day
Monday, along with critically low relative humidity - in many
locations, the day`s RH will dip to lower values than on Sunday.
The watch-out for Monday in particular will be that less effective
recovery in RH overnight will result in an effective fire
environment earlier in the day than usual. This will be
exacerbated by the fact that the strongest winds of the day are
expected to be in the morning rather than the afternoon. Because
of the potential for the stronger winds to overlap with very low
RH, the red flag warning will continue across the area today. At
greatest risk will be areas of dense, grassy fuels, which will
respond most quickly to the surge of dry air.

Beyond today, very dry conditions will persist away from the
coast on Tuesday, and we`ll be watching locations far inland for
another potential overlap of critically dry air and gusty winds,
as stronger south to southwesterly winds develop. While these
winds will begin to filter in more humid air and set us up for a
trend to higher humidity late in the week, it will take some time
to moisten the very dry air in place, particularly far away from
the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  58  35  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  61  38  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  52  72  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-176-
     177-179.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon CST today through
     this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ335.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs