Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
237 FXUS64 KHGX 031800 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Hot summer weather with daily risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms next week. - Short stretch of hotter weather from Wednesday through Friday. Higher temperatures with lower humidity, enough to avoid heat advisories for the time being. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Persistence forecast continues to win out with ridging in place over the SW CONUS. This ridge will weaken slightly through Monday as a series of disturbances pass through the W/NW CONUS/Plains. One of these disturbances comes in the form of a mid/upper level trough, which will dig across the Plains/Mississippi River Valley through early next week. As this trough pushes eastward into the TN Valley/Ohio Valley, the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward, strengthening around mid week before once again weakening next weekend. The warmest afternoon temperatures fall on these days, though broadly highs will range from the upper 80s to 90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. 90s to Triple digit heat indicies still likely throughout the forecast period, though drier air and improved mixing during this mid/late week period should keep heat stress low enough to avoid a heat advisory. SE Texas remains on the southeastern edge of the aforementioned ridge throughout the whole forecast period, allowing a number of weaker shortwave impulses to pass over this still moisture-rich area. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms remain a daily possibility now through next weekend. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The primary weather concern of the day will be the isolated to widely scattered shra/tsra activity. Most of this activity during the afternoon hours is expected to be south of I-10. However, we cannot rule out the seabreeze pushing isolated shra/tsra farther inland. In northern Texas, we are watching the progression of outflow boundaries that could spark thunderstorm activity north of our region later today. IF this occurs, then it`s possible we`ll need to amend the TAFs in our northern zones for possible evening shra/tsra. For now, the only mention of precip in our TAFs is south of I-10 during the early afternoon. Patchy fog possible early tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily with higher winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Otherwise conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze- landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 93 74 93 / 10 50 20 20 Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 93 / 10 40 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 10 30 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Self MARINE...03