Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
760 FXUS64 KHGX 151745 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, increasingly more humid conditions will prevail for the next week. - Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis. - Rain chances remain minimal through Tuesday, then increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to pass through the area on Thursday bringing an increase chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 November will be having a bit of an identity crisis over the next few days as temperatures will be closer to early October normals than mid-November. A building ridge of high pressure and southerly flow at the surface will lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through at least Tuesday (but possibly through Wednesday as well). And with increasing moisture each day, the heat indices may crack 90 degrees by Sunday in spots with low to mid-90s possible by Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will stay on theme as well with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s along the coast through Monday night. Increasing WAA and moisture will lead to even warmer overnight temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night with widespread lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Like we have seen the past few nights, there will be periods of patchy, sometimes dense, fog during the late night to early morning hours over the next few days. Any fog that does develop, will dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise. The trend that we have seen the past few days of lower and lower rain chances for the first half of next week continues with this package. We will likely be rain-free through Tuesday, though there may be an isolated coastal shower Tuesday afternoon thanks to increasing moisture and daytime heating. On Wednesday, a large upper-level low will swing through the Desert Southwest helping to push the ridge of high pressure that has been over Texas out to the east. Increasing moisture and passing weak shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will lead to a chance of scattered showers (and possibly some isolated thunderstorms) on Wednesday. However, the greatest chance of rain this week will be on Thursday as the large upper level low swings through the area with the associated cold front bringing increased chances of showers and thunderstorms. The exact timing of this FROPA is still a bit uncertain, but it will likely pass through SE Texas sometime Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. We are monitoring the potential for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms that may accompany the cold front. A splitting jet aloft will allow for good divergence aloft, and the preceding warm and moist airmass will be the fuel to support the thunderstorms. Confidence is still on the lower side to get into specifics, but it will be something we are watching in the forecast for this week. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Patchy fog, particularly in the usual trouble spots (hey there, CXO and LBX) will hold through an hour or two after sunrise, then VFR area-wide with southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots. May get some occasional gusts into the higher teens as well, all before the sun sets and we begin this persistent pattern anew. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through Tuesday with minimal rain chances. An approaching disturbance from the west will tighten the pressure gradient across the coastal waters Wednesday into Thursday bringing moderate to strong onshore winds, building seas, and an increased risk of strong rip currents. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday night through Thursday. A cold front is expected to pass through the coastal waters late Thursday into early Friday causing a northwesterly to northerly winds shift. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly strong, will be possible out ahead of and along the cold front`s passage on Thursday into Thursday night. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 64 87 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 69 79 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Fowler