456
FXUS64 KHGX 010542
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder and breezy conditions are occurring today in the wake of
  an overnight cold front. On the waters, Small Craft Advisories
  are in effect for all coastal waters through this evening, and
  on coastal Gulf waters until the morning.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with
  overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area -
  with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing
  Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday
  into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures expected tonight...however, overcast skies will
keep it from being the coldest night of the week...those nights
are up next! Lows for tonight into Monday morning will be in the
40s for much of the area, with a few locations along the coast
touching into the low 50s.

For Monday, 500mb showing a series of vort maximums traversing SE
Texas during the day, with a shortwave at the 700mb level, and
onshore flow at the 850mb level continuing to funnel in Gulf
moisture. Along with isentropic lifting, this setup will factor
into the potential for showers and thunderstorms during the day
tomorrow. Showers will start out light overnight. Coverage of
showers will increase during the day tomorrow with the approach of
the shortwave from the west. Rain is anticipated to move offshore
later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a reinforcing
front brings in a cooler and drier airmass.

Temperature wise Monday into Tuesday...consensus among my shift
partner and I is that model guidance is coming in a bit too warm
for this setup. Opted for a blend of previous forecast, CONSShort,
and NBM10. Probabilistically speaking, HREF and NBM had a low
(23-30%) chance of areas south of I-10 surpassing the 55F mark
tomorrow (areas close to I-10 and north were at a 0% probability).
With cloudy skies and rain expected for tomorrow, I would not be
surprised if temperatures turned out to be even a few degrees
cooler than what is forecast. Tuesday may be a bit more true to
the story with skies expected to clear out significantly and sun
able to contribute to the daytime highs.

Monday night and Tuesday night will be pretty brisk with
temperatures dropping into the low 30s to low 40s. The chance for
freezing temperatures increases further north across portions of
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

Onshore winds resume Tuesday night and begin another round of
warming for the area...and as observed for the last couple of
weeks, the return of onshore flow will set the stage for yet
another chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the week.
Will refrain from getting too hung up on details with it being
later in the period, but in any case, looking like another wet
weekend for at least the coastal areas.

Bailey







&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread MVFR conditions this evening are expected to trend IFR
as cigs drop overnight. Isolated to scattered SHRA activity is
expected to develop during the 07-09Z time frame, with more
widespread steadier RA occurring after 12Z. We could not rule out
a rumble of thunder. But any TSRA should be isolated, and not
common enough to warrant mention in the TAF. As the steady RA
settles in, vis is expected to average MVFR while cigs likely
stay in the IFR to lower end MVFR range through much of the rest
of the day. Could not rule out areas of LIFR tomorrow. Winds are
expected to remain NE and will be occasionally gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty north to northeast are in place over the coastal waters
following yesterday`s frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect. Another upper level disturbance will move through
overnight and Monday bringing another round of rain and embedded
thunderstorms. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning as moderate to strong
northeasterly winds develop behind this exiting system.

At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some
negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship
channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water
levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water
advisory.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  41  46  36  52 /  40  50  20   0
Houston (IAH)  44  49  39  54 /  50  90  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  50  57  47  55 /  60  90  70   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Bailey