654
FXUS64 KHGX 301157
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Front and associated showers and storms are moving off the coast
  early this morning. Much colder and breezy conditions are
  expected today.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with
  overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area -
  with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing
  Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday
  into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The anticipated cold front is knocking on our door and is expected
to pass through the area overnight. There is a line of showers
and strong thunderstorms currently extending along a ling from
B/CS through Lake Livingston that is producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall (radar indicated rain rates of 1-3" per
hour). This line is slowly moving southwards, but is expected to
pick up speed as the cold front catches up to it. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of the cold
front late tonight across the coastal areas and persist until the
front moves through. FROPA timing from the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region is between 11pm and Midnight, the I-10 corridor
between 2-4am, and then off the coast by 4-6am. Like we are seeing
currently across the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region, some
locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight across the area as the
front moves through. Grounds are fairly dry, which will help
alleviate flooding concerns, so minor flooding in areas of poor
drainage will be the primary concern - however, cannot out rule an
instance or two of flash flooding if heavy rainfall repeatedly
moves over the same area. One area to watch tonight will be the
Woodlands area as they received 1-2" of rain already from storms
earlier today.

A north wind is expected through the day on Sunday with gusts to
20-25mph expected through sunset. With temperatures on climbing
into the low to mid 50s and overcast skies expected, its going to
be a fairly chilly day. Some isolated showers are possible along
the coast through the morning due to lingering moisture. The
mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures from dropping
too far low Sunday night with minimum temperatures likely staying
in the low to mid 40s across much of the region. A weak upper-
level disturbance will slide across the area on Monday bringing
additional chances of scattered showers (mostly light rainfall,
but some embedded pockets of moderate rainfall cannot be ruled
out). With temperatures only climbing into the upper 40s to mid
50s on Monday, this will be a pretty cold rain. A reinforcing cold
front moves through late Monday ushering in even colder (and much
drier) conditions. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night
will be in the 30s north of I-10 (with some spots in the Piney
Woods dropping to near freezing), and low to mid 40s down to the
coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but
add on a few degrees.

Wednesday will be warmer thanks to the return of south-
southeasterly winds with highs temperatures in the low 60s to low
70s, and lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Another passing
disturbance on Thursday will bring additional rain chances for the
second half of the work week. Guidance is a bit uncertain on exact
timing, but could see the return of some rain showers as early as
Wednesday night with activity continuing through late Thursday or
early Friday morning.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Front has pushed off the coast. Lingering light rain from the
metro area southward will mostly taper off in the next few hours.
We should see gusty north winds today and a mix of ceilings...from
VFR in the Brazos Valley, to MVFR in the metro, and prevailing IFR
likely along the coast. Ceilings will trend downward overnight
back into, or close to, IFR areawide as southerly winds just above
the surface transport some overrunning moisture in advance of an
upper level disturbance approaching from the west late tonight and
Monday. Look for some scattered light pockets of rainfall to
develop after midnight...increasing in coverage Monday as it
passes through. There could be an elevated tstm or two closer to
the coast and offshore as well. 47


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A cold front is approaching the area from the north and will pass
through the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold
front, with some isolated strong storms capable of producing
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The front is
expected to pass through the Bays around 5-6am, the nearshore
waters between 6-8am, and then through the offshore waters by the
late morning. This front will usher in a strong northerly winds of
20-25kt with gusts to 30kt likely and to 35 kt possible. These
winds will persist through Sunday night for the Bays, and into
Monday morning for the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is
already in effect for the offshore waters due to lingering seas of
near 7ft, and then the rest of the waters begin at 6am for the
strong northerly winds behind the front. The SCA continues into
Sunday night for the Bays, and through Monday morning for the
coastal waters. However, this may need to be extended into Monday
afternoon depending on lingering gusty winds.

Another disturbance is expected to bring widespread showers and
storms Monday into Monday night with a reinforcing cold front
pushing through the coastal waters Monday night. Additional Small
Craft Advisories may be needed for moderate to strong north to
northeasterly winds behind this front Monday night into Tuesday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  48  41  49  37 /  10  30  60  20
Houston (IAH)  53  44  53  41 /  60  30  90  40
Galveston (GLS)  63  51  60  48 /  90  40  90  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler