269
FXUS64 KHGX 142342
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
  northward this afternoon. Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds,
  and frequent lightning are expected with the strongest storms.

- A drier weather pattern is anticipated Wednesday and Thursday
  accompanied by increasing temperatures and heat indices in the
  triple digits.

- We will continue to monitor the northeast and north central Gulf
  this week, where an area of disturbed weather will emerge. As of
  early this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
  continues to assign a 30% probability of tropical development in
  the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Overall, Southeast TX remains positioned between two areas of high
pressure and a persistent upper-level trough maintaining its
influence overhead. Latest radar returns show scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms already developing and moving
northward across the area early this afternoon. The combination of
upper-lvl forcing and a plentiful supply of warm, moist Gulf air
will sustain this activity over the next several hours. Expect these
showers and storms to taper off near sunset as diurnal heating
diminishes.

After today, a weather pattern shift is expected. The ridging
currently located to our east is forecast to strengthen somewhat and
begin a westward progression, moving closer to our region after
Tuesday. This pattern marks the beginning of a brief drier trend.
However, chances are non-zero. Will continue with a low chance for
showers and storms on Tuesday, primarily to account for isolated
storms that may still develop along the sea breeze boundary. As the
ridge continues its westward movement, more stable conditions will
prevail Wednesday and Thursday. The increased stability will lead to
substantially lower rain chances and the onset of drier and hotter
conditions. Highs could potentially climb into the mid to upper 90s
with heat indices in the triple digits.

Uncertainty in the weather forecast increases as we head into the
weekend. Most deterministic and ensemble means suggest an active
weather pattern with increasing rain and storm chances Friday into
the weekend. This is mainly driven by a disturbed area potentially
developing along the northeast and north central Gulf later this
week. NHC has a 30% chance of cyclone formation across this
region in the next 7 days. Again, uncertainty in terms of
precipitation chances and potential impacts across the Upper TX
coast is high. We will continue to monitor as the system makes its
way westward across the northern Gulf in the next few days.
Regardless of development, we will continue with increasing rain
and storm chances, particularly for areas east of I-45.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Two areas of showers/storms are still around Southeast Texas late
this afternoon: one near CLL and pushing northward and the other
near IAH. Some of these storms are capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 30-40kt at times and intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions. Shower/storm activity expected to gradually decrease
after sunset, then dissipate completely by 03Z. Another round of
MVFR ceilings expected overnight for CXO and northward after 10Z.
Some periods of patchy fog possible as well going into early
Tuesday morning, especially for those that received rainfall
earlier today. VFR conditions return by 16Z areawide with
southerly winds around 7-12kt. Another round of isolated to
scattered showers/storms is possible Tuesday afternoon after
20Z...this has been covered for now with PROB30`s for SHRA for
terminals around I-10 but these could be upgraded to TS if
confidence increases on location for this convection.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Onshore winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, and
seas in the 2 to 3 ft range are expected through most of the week.
Isolated showers and storms are possible over the Gulf waters this
afternoon, with peak activity across Galveston Bay, including the
Houston Ship Channel. This activity will gradually end by sunset.
Lower rain and storm chances are anticipated for Tuesday. A drier
airmass will filter in for Wednesday and Thursday as a high pressure
moves closer to the region.

NHC continues to monitor an area of low pressure system located
offshore of the east coast of Florida, moving westward into the
Gulf. There is a 30 percent chance of cyclone formation along the
northeast and north central Gulf later this week. This system
could bring the potential for locally heavy rain across the
northwestern Gulf as we head into the weekend. Mariners, remain
weather aware and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

JM

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of
low pressure just off of the east coast of Florida. It is forecast
to track westward into the north-central Gulf over the next few
days. Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to
potentially develop into a tropical depression by the middle to
late part of the week, so the NHC has given it a 30% probability
of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days and a 40%
probability of development over the next 7 days. The latest suite
of ensemble guidance (12Z July 14th) still keeps this low well to
our east and more towards the north- central Gulf coast. The only
impact to Southeast Texas we are anticipating at this time is an
increase of moisture towards the end of the work week, which may
bring increased rain chances. However, if this system manages to
develop a sufficient closed low at the surface, then it would keep
the moisture east of Southeast Texas leaving us dry at the end of
the week. As you can tell, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty. Be sure to continue to monitor the forecast from
reliable sources for updates as we get a better idea of how this
system will evolve.

Stay up to date on the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and stay up to date on
the latest forecasts for Southeast Texas at weather.gov/houston

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  74  94 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  94  76  95 /  20  30   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  91 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM