538
FXHW01 KWNH 100700
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 11 Dec 2025 - 00Z Thu 18 Dec 2025

...Heavy rains for the western Hawaiian Islands Sunday into next
Wednesday...

A cold front moves into the western main islands late today at
the leading edge of a positively tilted trough, weakening the
trades. The guidance shows good agreement on this overall system,
allowing the front to generally move through the main Hawaiian
Islands into Friday. Showers/thunderstorms with brief moderate to
heavy rain are expected to accompany the frontal passage from late
Wednesday into Friday.

A pair of deep layer cyclones follow in its wake, also with good
guidance agreement. The polar front moves into the western main
Hawaiian islands, leading to heavy rainfall Sunday into next
Wednesday. The guidance has shown good continuity on this
scenario/heavy rain threat since this time yesterday, increasing
confidence in the advertised scenario.

Roth

$$