100
FXHW01 KWNH 080701
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Valid 00Z Tue 09 Dec 2025 - 00Z Tue 16 Dec 2025

Easterly trades start out the period with the usual windward
shower paradigm expected. A compact cut off low will meander east
and northeast of the state through Tuesday but is forecast to
have minimal, if any, impact on precipitation amounts across
Hawai`i before it moves northeast, out of the picture.

A cold front moves into the western main islands late Wednesday
at the leading edge of a positively tilted trough, weakening the
trades. The guidance not only agrees on allowing the front to
generally through the main Hawaiian Islands by Saturday, but also
on the behavior of the occluded cyclone to the north (unlike
previous days). Showers/thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain
are expected to accompany the frontal passage from late Wednesday
into Friday, though expected rainfall doesn`t appear to be
excessive at the present time as the front is forecast to be
progressive.

Another deep cyclone follows in its wake, but its
front should stay barely west of the main Hawaiian islands this
weekend. A third occluded cyclone follows, but the greatest
impact is should have by next Monday is keeping the trades weaker
than average and maintaining the previous systems front/heavy
rainfall footprint just west of the main Hawaiian islands.

Roth

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