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FXHW01 KWNH 130828
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 14 Nov 2025 - 00Z Fri 21 Nov 2025

Breezy to windy conditions are likely for another day as a
surface high well north of Hawaii produces a tight pressure
gradient for east-northeasterly trades. Some windward showers are
possible in this pattern, especially across the Big Island and
Maui eastern slopes per the HREF. By Friday and especially into
Saturday, trades are forecast to weaken a bit to more moderate to
breezy levels as the surface high weakens and moves east, lasting
through the weekend.

By early to mid next week, there is some model signal for
tropical moisture to be pulled north as troughing at the surface
and aloft produces southerly flow. GFS runs and GEFS members are
particularly aggressive with the troughing, leading to high
moisture levels coming into the state Monday and lasting through
midweek. This also relates to a cold front northwest of the state,
which recent GFS runs have approaching the state by midweek and
then retrograding. The ECMWF, on the other hand, maintains a
typical trade wind pattern into much of next week as the
aforementioned cold front is well west of Hawaii and does not draw
the moisture northward. GEFS and EC ensemble means have some
increased QPF and moisture anomalies, but are more muted than the
GFS, and AI guidance is similar. So will continue to monitor
trends and hopefully better model convergence to determine the
pattern next week, but for now a purely GFS type of solution is
not preferred.

Tate

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