Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
471 FXUS66 KHNX 070532 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1127 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The cooling trend will continue today with temperatures around normal for this time of year, then by early next week becoming around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. 2. Thunderstorm chances are less than 5% through this weekend and into Monday, but may ramp up Tuesday through Thursday, mainly along the Sierra Nevada crest north of Tulare County. && .DISCUSSION... As we transition from the ridging pattern into a troughing pattern, temperatures across the region today are expected to be around normal for this time of year. As the trough comes further inland into Northern California over the next few days, highs can be expected to trend cooler through early next week, with the cooler temperatures expected on Wednesday. While this cooldown is occuring, thunderstorm potential may increase from Tuesday through Thursday as the main axis of the trough moves through California. The majority of energy is expected to come into Northern California with a small amount infiltrating into Central California. Current models are indicating thunderstorm chances are mainly located along the Sierra Nevada crest north of Tulare County, though it may come further south with a deeper trough. These cool temperatures may not last as the trough moves on by Friday and more zonal flow takes over. This type of flow would then result in temperatures that are more seasonal than would be seen with a ridging pattern. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. Areas of smoke will be lingering across the Sierra Foothills in Fresno County through 18Z Sun when southwesterly flow aloft pushes much of the smoke upslope towards the Sierra crest. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Fire Weather...EW aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford