Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
286 FXUS66 KHNX 240916 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 116 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dense Fog Advisory issued for the San Joaquin Valley valid through 11 AM Monday morning. Chances for fog each subsequent morning through next week. 2. Temperatures near to just below season averages through the week. Low probability for freezing temperatures in the Mojave Desert for much of the week, high probability for the Sierra Nevada. 3. Indications for a low pressure system over the western US to end the month, though uncertainty remains for exact location and impacts for central California. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model ensembles have the ridge of high pressure moving onshore today in tomorrow but also strengthening. The ensembles agree that it will be remain strong for much of the week. This ridge will help keep the atmosphere stable for fog formation every morning this week. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 11 AM this morning. High temperatures will remain near to just below seasonal normals through Thursday. In the Desert areas near Edwards AFB, the latest NBM has a 20 to 35 percent chance of below freezing lows through Wednesday morning before becoming 10 to 20 percent for the rest of the week. The model ensembles have a trough sliding into Nevada late Friday and Saturday into Sunday. This will help bring temperatures down in the Valley. However, the latest ensembles and NBM have any possible precipitation coming in later as Saturday has a 10 to 15 percent chance of rain accumulating but Sunday is more favorable at a 45 to 50 percent chance of any rain for the Valley and snow in the Sierra Nevada. However, this trough is expected to be cold by the ensembles as it is tilted towards a very deep cold airmass that will be over Nunavut and northern Manitoba and Ontario provinces. && .AVIATION... LIFR conditions will gradually spread south by 12Z covering most of the Valley including KMCE, KMAE, KHJO, KVIS. KBFL and KFAT are at a 40 to 60 percent chance of LIFR conditions. Conditions begin improving around 17Z-19Z allowing for VFR conditions until 6Z when MVFR to IFR conditions return. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Monday November 24 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-314. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford