336
FXUS66 KHNX 100902
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
102 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions with temperatures well above normal this
Monday. Cooling trend starting on Tuesday with below seasonal
conditions by Thursday.

2. The next storm arrives on Wednesday with significant
precipitation amounts from an Atmospheric River on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A high pressure ridge over now sits over the West Coast as much
of the San Joaquin Valley reaches the 80 degree mark. While the
southern portions of Central California favors 80 degree
temperatures, the north valley will join the group as peak
heating occurs this Monday. Afterward, slow cooling will start
with high temperatures falling below seasonal normal values
(upper 60s) by Friday. Probability of Exceedance of reaching 70
degrees has values below 5 percent starting on Friday and
continues that trend through early next week.

The return of wet weather will be of higher concern as a
winter-like storm pushes through Central California later this
week. Ensemble moisture analysis continues to show a change to
wet weather starting on Wednesday(Nov 12th) afternoon with the
bulk of the storm expected by Thursday Morning. Ensemble
analysis has shown minimal deviation from the solution of
introducing unsettled conditions on Wednesday and having the
heaviest precipitation cross Central California on Thursday.
Probability of Precipitation (PoP) of receiving a tenth of an
inch in 6 hours starts out below 10 percent on Wednesday and
increases to around 60 percent by Thursday morning. PoP of
exceeding one half of an inch reaches to 80-90 percent Thursday
afternoon with PoP of exceeding a one inch of rain range between
40 to 70 percent for area in the foothills and Sierra Nevada.
The Valley only show values in the lower to mid teen
(percentages).

While ensemble moisture analysis is showing some uncertainty of
the magnitude and strike zone of a moderate Atmospheric River,
models do suggest that Central California will receive a
significant portion of that moisture. Snow levels show less
ensemble model uncertainty as confidence is high that snow
levels will start above 8000 feet at the start of the storm and
drop to around 6000 feet by early Friday Morning. While snow
levels and overall temperatures see a marked decrease,
precipitation from the Atmospheric River will see a decreasing
trend as amounts taper-off. Ensemble show linger showers
extending into Saturday with conditions drying out on Sunday as
a ridge of high pressure returns to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
A 10 to 15 percent chance of IFR conditions will exist this
morning until 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday November 10, 2025, No Burning Unless Registered in
Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties, and Kern
(Greater Frazier Park Area). Burning Discouraged in Merced
County, and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford