Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
445 FXUS66 KHNX 021923 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1123 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Below to near normal temperatures continue for the next several days before a potential warm up this coming weekend. 2. There will be isolated rainfall and snowfall on Tuesday which will be light and mostly confined to the mountains; a few spotty showers can not be ruled out in the valley. && .DISCUSSION... Luckily visibilities were never significantly reduced in our area and dense morning fog did not materialize. The dense fog advisory was therefore canceled earlier this morning. A ridge of high pressure has moved back into place over our area and temperatures are expected to warm over the next couple of days. Skies are clear over most of our area now with some high level clouds mostly in the mountains. More widespread high level clouds will move into our area later this evening, with us on the leeward side of a shortwave trough resulting in more lift. For today, temperatures will remain below average but likely warm up a few degrees from yesterday. The probability of temperatures above 70 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley today is very low (5 to 15%). Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow with the probability of exceeding (POE) 70 degrees at around 50-65% in the valley. In addition, a shortwave trough will move over our region tomorrow resulting in a chance for rain and snow mostly within the mountains. Some brief showers can not be ruled out in the valley, especially in the northern regions of the valley tomorrow afternoon or evening, but any rain that does occur will be light with only a slight chance of .01 inches of rain in the northern valley near Merced and Los Banos (20-25%). There is a low chance as well for a dusting of snow along the northern high Sierra, north of Yosemite Valley, with a 35-55% chance of at least .5 inches of snow above 9,000 feet in elevation. Gusty winds are also possible within typical wind prone areas of the Sierra Nevada mountains and Mojave Desert slopes, with a POE 30 mph wind gusts at around 40 to 60% throughout the day Tuesday. A weak ridge or zonal flow will move into our area Wednesday with dry conditions and light winds expected through the end of the week. The ridge is expected to strengthen however this coming Friday resulting in average to likely slightly above average temperatures this coming weekend. By this coming Saturday, the POE 75 degrees across the Central Valley is at around 35 to 50% in the northern valley and 60 to 75% in the southern valley. The chances increase even further on Sunday (55 to 85%), and remain above 50% on Monday. After Monday, temperatures are expected to at least cool slightly, and by Thursday of next week the POE 75 degrees is at or below 25% throughout the valley. Some models and ensemble members are picking up on a strong trough and potential low pressure system by mid to late week next week. There is a range of possible outcomes with regards to a potential disturbance impacting our area within that timeframe, and the confidence in rainfall as of now remains low. There is about a 50% chance of at least .01 inches of rainfall by early Thursday morning of next week, signifying the low confidence in this event as of now. A warm and wet weather pattern is the most likely scenario for the long term. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a 40 to 50% chance for above normal temperatures and precipitation in the 8-14 Day Outlook. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Monday November 2 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area), and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...MC aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford