Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
682 FXUS66 KHNX 291755 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1055 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near normal temperatures Today with a warming trend through the Labor Day weekend. 2. A 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Today. && .DISCUSSION... The interaction of the ridge pattern with a disturbance off the Pacific Northwest Coast has allowed for the eastward push of monsoonal out of Central California. With the wind flow in a more westerly direction, Precip-Water is being cut-off from the Gulf region as some values drop-off. While significant moisture remains over the region, will expect convective activity to slowly fade as Probability of Occurrence of observing Thunderstorms today remains below 10%. In addition, the flatness of the ridge pattern will keep temperatures at near normal values. The ridge pattern is expected to win out and rebuild over the Labor Day weekend and the heat returns. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees starts low and progressively increases through Monday. At that point, much of the San Joaquin Valley is showing PoE of reaching 100 degrees in the 90% range. PoE then tapers off around Wednesday and lowers to around 30% valley-wide by the end of the week. Also of note, PoE of reaching 105 degrees never goes above 20% during the next seven days. Moisture-wise, ensemble show the eastward progression of the Monsoonal moisture away from California. By Monday, the ridge pattern rebound as moisture is once again transported toward Central California. The mean 1 inch line does not return to Kern County until Wednesday with additional moisture surging in on Thursday. At this point, will keep minimal convection over the Sierra Nevada until later next week (closer to Friday). Furthermore, while the ridge maintains it grip on the West Coast, winds will remain light and terrain driven. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: A 5 to 10 percent chance for thunderstorms along the crests of the Sierra Nevada until 03Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Molina aviation....SM weather.gov/hanford