173
FXUS66 KHNX 301747
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1047 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Above normal temperatures are expected in our area today, and
temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week.

2. A Moderate Heat Risk through the Central Valley is likely
(50-70% chance) by Thursday with the chances increasing even
further this weekend.

3. A low chance of precipitation will be in place on Sunday and
Monday of next week along the Sierra Nevada crest (10-20%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cooler weather that was in place on Monday has quickly
dissipated, with warm, or even hot temperatures by the end of this
week. A strong ridge of high pressure is beginning to build
over our region and will continue to build over the next couple
of days. Dry and warm weather with temperatures potentially
reaching 10-15 degrees above average remains likely for the end
of this week into this weekend. The probability of temperatures
reaching above 95 degrees will be very low today (5-20%). The
probability however will increase drastically by tomorrow
(65-80%) and will likely remain very high for the foreseeable
future after tomorrow. The probability of a Moderate Heat Risk
in the Central Valley will be around 50-70% tomorrow and on
Friday, while the probability today will be close to 0%. By this
weekend the probability will have increased even further, with
a 70-90% chance of a Moderate Heat Risk through much of the
Central Valley on Saturday and Sunday.

While there is some inconsistency with ensemble members
regarding the exact strength, a shortwave trough will likely
move into our region on Sunday of this coming weekend. As of
now, Central Valley temperatures will still likely remain hot,
with only very slight changes in the overall temperature
pattern. However, this trough could provide a source for lift in
mountainous terrains. The probability of precipitation on
Sunday and Monday is around 10-20% along the Sierra Nevada
crest. In addition to the chances for precipitation, there is a
chance for gusty winds along typical wind prone regions,
including Lake Isabella on Sunday and Monday of next week.
Confidence in how gusty it will be remains low at this point
given that this event is several days out, but the probability
of wind gusts of at least 25 mph is 55-70% on Sunday, mostly
along the Mojave Desert slopes and Lake Isabella.

Temperatures look to remain well above average for an extended
period of time, with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicting
a 80-90% chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14
day outlooks. Near normal precipitation however is expected within
this same time period.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

public...MC
aviation....ND

weather.gov/hanford