Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
446 FXUS66 KHNX 221008 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 208 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dense Fog Advisory issued for the San Joaquin Valley valid through 10 AM Saturday morning. Chances for fog each subsequent morning through next week. 2. Temperatures near to just below season averages through the next week. Moderate probability for freezing temperatures in the Mojave Desert early next week, high probability for the Sierra Nevada. && .DISCUSSION... An active pattern for central California will wrap up today as a cutoff low pressure system moves into the desert southwest from the southern portion of the state. Some lingering moisture associated with this system will cause a 10 to 20 percent chance for light precipitation for the Mojave Desert and the southern Sierra Nevada in Tulare County over the coming hours, but as the day progresses and the low moves out of the region, these chances diminish. Precipitation across the last week for the region has caused a great influx of surface moisture, and when combined with cooler temperatures overnight will likely result in widespread dense fog for the San Joaquin Valley over the coming days. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a portion of the valley through 10 AM this morning and high resolution ensembles give a 60 to 70 percent chance for visibilities of one quarter mile or less for both Sunday and Monday morning. Conditions become more favorable as we move into early next week as cluster analysis projects good confidence in a ridge moving over the region, which will further trap moisture nearer to the surface during the overnight periods. Temperatures for the next week will largely hold near to a few degrees below season averages across the region, with one to two degrees of fluctuation for afternoon highs each day. As next weekend approaches, there are indications from the aforementioned clusters for another weak system to develop and track across central California, with ensemble output from the NBM showing a 40 to 50 percent probability for at least a trace of rainfall for much of the area next Saturday. While still having an amount of variability, the Climate Prediction Center does indicate an 33 to 40 percent chance for above normal precipitation in the 6 to 10 day period, which encompasses next weekend. && .AVIATION... 30 to 40 percent chance for LIFR conditions, primarily for the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County between 15Z and 18Z Sat due to fog development. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Saturday, November 22 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-315. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford