Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
500 FXUS66 KHNX 151811 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1111 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Drier air will cause minimum relative humidity to fall between 10 and 20 percent for much of the region through the forecast period. There is Moderate Fire Risk as a result. 2. Temperatures are expected near normal for much of the area with Minor Heat Risk in the San Joaquin Valley and Moderate Heat Risk in the Kern County Desert. 3. Stronger wind gusts are possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning; there is a 40 to 80 percent chance for gusts greater than 45 mph. && .DISCUSSION... A slight building of a high pressure ridge to our southeast will result in warmer temepratures this afternoon compared to the past few days. These warmer temperatures will give way to near average conditions tomorrow and Tuesday as a shortwave trough passes through central California. The orientation of this piece of energy is expected to cause stronger winds to develop in the lee side of the local ranges, particularly in the West Side Hills and the Mojave Slopes/Walker Pass area. A sudden warm up will follow midweek as high pressure builds in again behind the aforementioned trough. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for much of the San Joaquin Valley to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday, with lower chances on Thursday except for Bakersfield (80 percent chance), Hanford (55 percent chance), and Visalia (65 percent chance). A much stronger trough dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest will result in a cooling trend into next weekend with potential for below-average temperatures in the upper 80s next Saturday. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range remain expected through the next week. As we have seen previously, hundred to thousand acre grass fires have sprung up as a result of these low RH values and stronger late afternoon winds. With the incoming trough tomorrow and Tuesday, elevated wind gusts paired with the low RH will continue to bring a moderate risk for fire development and spread. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/14/2025 15:38 EXPIRES: 06/15/2025 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...mccoy weather.gov/hanford