Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
117 FXUS66 KHNX 010925 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 225 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .UPDATE... Updated air quality section. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Slight chance for fog this morning in the central San Joaquin Valley, with a 20 to 30 percent chance for visibilities less than one mile. 2. Afternoon temperatures remaining above season averages. 3. System approaching the region next Wednesday bringing valley rain, mountain snow, and increased gusts in the desert areas. && .DISCUSSION... Conditions for today remain similar to the previous two to three days due to high pressure continuing to stall over the southwestern US. This pattern is driving above average temperatures over the region that will persist through the middle of next week. While this pattern is conducive for fog development in the San Joaquin Valley, we are gradually losing the moisture from our last round of precipitation from the 22nd of the month, causing fog to be less likely; high resolution models give a 20 to 30 percent chance for visibilities less than one mile for Saturday morning, though in very localized areas. A more zonal pattern is favorable to set up moving into the early week period, setting up seasonable temperatures and benign conditions. The next major pattern change will come during the middle of next week, with cluster ensembles coming into more agreement for a low pressure trough to drop along the Pacific coast from the Gulf of Alaska. However, the orientation of the trough remains less certain among the clusters, with 35 percent of members expressing a more shallow trough oriented towards northern California, but with 25 percent of members showing a deeper trough directed towards the northern San Joaquin Valley, and still another 25 percent of members showing a shallower trough centered in our area. All this said, there is at least a 40 percent probability for one-tenth of an inch of precipitation over 24 hours ending 4 AM Thursday in Fresno County, with probabilities up to 70 percent north of Fresno, but only up to 30 percent in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Snow levels between 7000-8000` will cause precipitation to result in snow above these levels, with a 70 to 80 percent probability for one inch or more of snowfall in the central Sierra Nevada. Elevated winds also have an increased potential in the Mojave Desert Slopes, with a 70 to 80 percent probability for gusts to exceed 40 mph in the town of Mojave, and for CA Highways 14, 58, and 178. && .AVIATION... 20 to 30 percent chance for IFR conditions or lower in the San Joaquin Valley through 16Z Sat. Afterwards, VFR conditions will prevail across central California through at least 06Z Sun. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 10/31/2025 13:53 EXPIRES: 11/01/2025 23:59 On Saturday November 1 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...McCoy weather.gov/hanford