Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
146 FXUS66 KHNX 030642 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1042 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Below to near normal temperatures continue for the next several days before a potential warm up this coming weekend. 2. There will be isolated rainfall and snowfall on Tuesday which will be light and mostly confined to the mountains; a few spotty showers can not be ruled out in the valley. && .DISCUSSION... We are entering a period of calm and stable weather. Wahoo! After the excitement of the weekend, the ridge set up quickly. It is also moving out rather quickly, as a shortwave will be moving through NorCal. There`s a 30% chance of a trace (0.01") of rain in Merced by tomorrow afternoon. Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and the Sierra Nevada in Fresno, Madera and Mariposa counties have the highest probabilities of seeing trace, with a 24% in the Foothills and going up to an 85% chance in Hetch Hetchy Reservoir of seeing 0.01" of rain by tomorrow night. So unfortunately (if you`re like this forecaster and enjoy a gloomy day), most rain will be confined to NorCal. This is then followed by yet another shortwave on Wednesday that`ll keep temperatures below normal. In fact, there`s only a 10% chance of the Valley exceeding 70 degrees on Wednesday. Now that`s going to be a lovely day! After that, the quasi-zonal flow will be setting up, then strengthen into a ridge. From the mid-week to the end of the week, we`ll see temperatures begin to tick up to above normal. For early November, normal temps are 70 degrees. Thursday, there`s 20-55% of temperatures being above 70 degrees. That 55% is in Merced. So while they get the gloomy weather tomorrow, they`ll also be heating up first this week, which feels like a decent trade off. By Friday, that quasi-zonal flow has strengthen into ridging, so the probability of exceeding 70 degrees is now 75-80% for the entire Valley. The probability of exceeding 73 degrees, however, is 10-20%. So while temperatures will be above normal on Friday, it will still be a nice day. Models are beginning to pick up on signs of an atmospheric river. This is currently at the end of the model runs (hour 240 or day 10), so any precipitation amount forecasted right now is extremely likely to change. What we are seeing right now and picking up on is a 25-50% chance for the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada, and the Mojave Desert (with the desert being the lower probability) for a trace of rain, or 0.01". As we get closer to the event, we will have more confidence in what precipitation amount, if any, we will receive. The Climate Prediction Center is expecting this to be a wet and warm event, as the 6-10 day outlook has 70-80% for above normal temperatures and a 60-70% of above normal precipitation. The 8-14 day outlook spins a similar story, but temperatures have less of a chance for above normal temperatures (40-50% chance of above normal), while precipitation is a 50-60% chance of above normal precipitation. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours for most areas. KVIS will experience MVFR from 0900 Z through 1700 Z due to mist. Afterwards, KVIS will return to VFR conditions. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BB aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford