Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
351 FXUS66 KHNX 141805 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1105 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley an Sierra Nevada Foothills through early next week. 50 to 80 percent chance for greater than 103 degrees in the Valley today and a 30 to 60 percent on Tuesday; 40 to 70 percent chance for Foothill areas to exceed 100 degrees. 2. Breezy on Tuesday over the wind prone areas of the Eastern Mojave Slopes as a 30 to 50 percent chance exist of wind gusts reaching 35 mph during the afternoon/early evening hours. 2. Low RH values 15 to 25 percent will stretch across much of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada with values 5 to 10 percent in the Mojave Desert early this week. RH will increase over the region later in the week with cooling temperatures. 3. 60 to 100 percent chance or temperatures to exceed 105 degrees for much of the Kern Desert over the weekend; 50 to 80 percent chance for Inyokern and Ridgecrest to exceed 110 on Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... The Heat-wave continues across the region as afternoon highs once again reach into the 102-106 degree range. Heat Advisory currently in effect for the lower elevations and desert Even with the extensive smoke cover across the West, will have no problem reaching triple digit temperatures as the ridge of high pressure remains in control of the West Coast. Short-range ensemble temperature analysis Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 103 degrees sits at a range of 50%-80%. These percentages increase confidence in have max temperatures reach will above 100 degrees this Monday. The ridge overhead will also keep winds light and the atmosphere dry. Tuesday will start a period of transition as a disturbance moves through the Pacific Northwest an a area of weakness over Baja California will support a northward push of Monsoonal moisture later this week. A disturbance will move into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and push into Northern California during the evening. Current PoE still leaning toward triple digit heat on Tuesday as range falls to 30%-60% of reaching 103 degrees. While confidence has lowered, will expect max temperatures closer to 100 degree mark rather than 103 degrees. Still hot. Then comes Wednesday with the disturbance crossing the region and max temperatures drop some five to ten degrees. PoE of 100 degrees drops below 30% as highs temperatures struggle to reach 100 degrees until next weekend. Even then, PoE of 100 degrees will range from 30%-50%, which will limit triple digits to the more favored locations from Lemoore down to Taft. Once the disturbance crosses the region, ridging will rebound over the West with an area of weakness lingering over Baja California. The southward extent of the disturbance will limit wind development as ensemble wind analysis only favored breezy to near windy conditions on Tuesday over the wind prone areas. With ensembles only hinting toward windy conditions, will not issue a Wind Advisory as criteria will not be met during the period. Uncertainty in the flow aloft around the area of weakness will keep the probability of a northward moisture surge a low values. Ensemble precip-water analysis shows southeasterly flow drawing moisture toward the region with limited amounts making it to Central California. Yet, enough moisture will surge northward for afternoon clouds along the Sierra Nevada Crest and a isolated convective shower. Ensemble instability too weak for any strong cell development. Saturday does show the best chances of convective development when enough moisture filters into the area and dynamics from another disturbance supports more organized convective development. Yet, even then, limited moisture will keep thunderstorm on the dry side. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ300>322-324-325- 332. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina/SM weather.gov/hanford