Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
698 FXUS66 KHNX 161012 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 212 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The system moving through the region continues to bring potentially excessive rainfall to the Sierra Nevada Foothills, the lower Sierra and into the Lake Isabella area through this afternoon. 2. A second, colder system may bring additional precipitation to much of the region by Sunday night into Monday, with snow levels down to 5000 to 6000 feet. 3. A third system may impact the region by Thursday, with similar snow levels to the Sunday night system, with precipitation possible through Friday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... The system moving through the region continues to bring potentially excessive rainfall to the Sierra Nevada Foothills, the lower Sierra and into the Lake Isabella area through this afternoon. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) has been issued for this region today. Precipitation is expected to continue with this system through Sunday afternoon. A second system may impact the region by early Monday morning, with an open trough coming down from the north and pulling in cold air from Canada, leading to a cooler system and lowered snow levels. These levels are currently forecast to start at 6000 feet before dropping to around 5000 feet, meaning lower elevation snow for the Sierra Nevada. There is again the risk for excessive rainfall in the Kern mountains and Sierra Nevada and it`s foothills on Monday as it passes through. This system is then expected to clear out by Tuesday evening. The activity continues with a third system possible by early Thursday morning through at least Friday night. Preliminary snow levels for that time period are consistent with the Monday system, around 5000 to 6000 feet. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Sunday November 16, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for CAZ317>322-332-333. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ323-326>331. && $$ EW weather.gov/hanford