Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
018 FXUS66 KHNX 190840 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1240 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog forming across the San Joaquin Valley this morning as lingering showers continue across the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains. 2. A weaker system may bring some more precipitation to the region again by Thursday into Friday. 3. The region looks to finally dry out by the weekend, though fog formation is possible during that time due to the abundant amount of moisture in the Valley at the moment. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level disturbance continues to move along the California Coast and expected to come ashore around San Diego near daybreak this Wednesday. While some wrap-around dynamics and moisture will help generate a few more showers over the Kern and Tulare County Mountains this morning, the trend will be for clearing ahead of the next disturbance on Thursday. Short-wave ridging will dominate the area this morning and Thursday morning. With this ridging, fog development will increase across the San Joaquin Valley as probabilities of visibility below a quarter mile are already reaching 50% to 70%. As the short-wave ridge moves over California this evening, fog will once again form with possible wider coverage. Yet, by Thursday, the next storm system will push ashore as precipitation once again invades Central California. The next storm will maintain snow levels between 5000 and 6000 feet as the storm will have polar-maritime origins. While a wider coverage of snow will be observed with the next storm, its origins will hold less moisture, and less precipitation totals. Expected snowfall totals will range from 2 to 6 inches with Tioga Pass reaching 8 inches. Yet, there is a high probability that storm total snowfall will comes at lower values. While current total storm snow falls below winter weather product criteria, will monitor the situation for further developments. Likewise to the Sierra Nevada, the San Joaquin Valley will have less than a 30% chance of receiving more than a tenth of an inch of rain. While the probability of measurable precipitation is high, will only expect light amounts for the Thursday and Friday time period. After Friday, longer term ensemble analysis is showing drier conditions over the region. && .AVIATION... VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with a 80 percent of IFR conditions and a 50% to 70% chance of LIFR conditions between 11Z and 17Z on Tuesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday November 19, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-314-315. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford