Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
702 FXUS66 KHNX 170759 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1259 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog development expected for the San Joaquin Valley (along the Highway 99 corridor) Friday (40-50% chance for quarter mile visibility) and Saturday (20-30% chance for quarter mile visibility). 2. Clear and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend. Another disturbance is expected to cross the area early next week. 3. Probability of reaching 75 degrees will rise to 60% to 80% by Friday with a 60% to 80% chance of reaching 80 degrees during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure now becoming the dominate weather feature with clear skies, warming temperatures and morning fog being observed. These conditions will persist through the weekend while the ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the West Coast. At this point, the cold air over Central California from the last frontal passage has been well modified as temperatures continue approaching seasonal normal values. By Monday, a storm moving through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California will introduce changes over the region as temperatures start cooling and some clouds move into the area. Fog will once again develop over the Eastern San Joaquin Valley as ensemble visibility analysis shows two areas of best development. The area from Hanford to Visalia and down to Tulare and Corcoran show probabilities near 40% this morning. An area from Selma to Madera along highway 99 is the other area with similar probabilities. With the onset of fog near 0500 PDT and going through 1000 PDT, the current dense fog advisory covers this mornings event. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees remains low this Friday but shows a rise to 40% to 60% on Saturday across the San Joaquin Valley with near 80% around Bakersfield. While Bakersfield has the highest likelihood, by Sunday, a majority of the valley shows a PoE of 60% to 80%. Confidence is high that Sunday will see the warmest temperatures before a drop in conditions starting on Monday. With the bulk of next weeks storm well to the north, chances of precipitation remain at near zero percentage values. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior through 12Z Friday. Areas of patchy fog developing in the San Joaquin Valley after 12Z Friday with a 40 percent chance for IFR/LIFR conditions at KFAT, KMER, KMCE, and KVIS until 18Z Friday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM PDT this morning for CAZ302-303-306-307-310>312. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford