Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
316 FXUS66 KHNX 060437 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 837 PM PST Fri Dec 5 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Air Quality Issues and Aviation sections. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog and low clouds will continue each night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley for the remainder of this week into early next week. Dense fog will also develop at times in the lower Sierra foothills, coastal ranges, and the Grapevine. 2. A gradual warming trend will occur in the mountains and desert until next week, as the high pressure pattern continues over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Model ensembles are in a strong agreement that the ridge of high pressure will move onshore but remains strong and in place. The subsidence often found in the ridges will help keep the stratus and fog pattern going for a few more days which will keep the San Joaquin Valley cooler than average. However, the NBM is still showing 50 to 100 percent chances of high temperatures cracking 50 degrees for the next week. The stratus also will lead to fog over some of the passes including Pacheco and Tejon Pass over the next few days. However, eastern Kern County and the Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains will have increasing temperatures with the ridge. The desert area even has a 65 to 80 percent chance of highs of at least 70 degrees by Wednesday of next week. The latest CPC outlooks have the Valley, the Sierra Nevada, and the Mojave Desert under a 70 to 90 percent chance of above average temperatures due to the persisting ridge. However, the outlooks show a shift from a 40 to 50 percent probability of below average precipitation to a 33 to 40 percent probability of above average precipitation for the much of the Valley and Sierra Nevada. && .AVIATION... From 09Z-18Z Saturday, there is a 40-50 percent chance of VLIFR conditions due to dense fog in portions of the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise, IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail through 20Z Saturday before improving to MVFR. LIFR conditions will also persist in the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County mountains due to the low stratus deck. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Saturday December 6 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST Saturday for CAZ300-335. && $$ JPK/BSO weather.gov/hanford