Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
290 FXUS66 KHNX 160448 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 948 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures drop Wednesday through Friday before a warmup over the weekend. 2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect for San Luis Reservoir until midnight Thursday. 3. Dry conditions will remain for the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures warmed up into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday. However, a trough slides in Wednesday and will slowly move out on Friday dropping temperatures. Latest probabilities have a 80 to 90 percent chance of highs below 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley. However, winds pick up in the southern part of the Valley with Bakersfield at a 40 percent chance of 25 mph gusts. Winds also pick up along the Mojave Slopes and Desert. However, the windy spots will have a 40 percent chance or less of 40 mph gusts on Wednesday before falling to less than 10 percent into next week. Thus, no wind products are expected for the Mojave. However, the winds at San Luis Reservoir there is a 50 to 70 percent chance of 30 mph gusts on Wednesday leading to a Lake Wind Advisory until midnight Thursday. Temperatures rebound over the weekend due to a weak ridge developing. There is a 65 to 90 percent chance of highs back in the 90s over the weekend in the Valley. A shortwave trough slides in on Monday lowering the probabilities to 45 to 60 percent. However, the shortwave gets cutoff and the ridge builds over it on Tuesday becoming a rex block. Temperatures climb back Tuesday and next Wednesday with a 40 to 70 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees. Precipitation probabilities contain to remain less than 10 percent for the next week despite the CPC continuing to have a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation. CPC also is keeping a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours with light wind speeds below 10 mph. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT Wednesday night for CAZ300. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford