Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
460 FXUS66 KHNX 141802 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1102 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Drier air will cause minimum relative humidity to fall between 10 and 20 percent for much of the region through the forecast period. There is Moderate Fire Risk as a result. 2. Temperatures are expected near normal for much of the area with Minor Heat Risk in the San Joaquin Valley and Moderate Heat Risk in the Kern County Desert. 3. Stronger wind gusts are possible in the Mojave Desert Slopes later this evening with a 40 to 70 percent chance to exceed 40 mph. && .DISCUSSION... An incoming upper level trough is causing winds aloft to shift towards the southwest, resulting in a slight cooling trend with temperatures today expected within a few degrees of season averages. While this pattern will continue through early next week, winds are expected to decrease slightly tomorrow, causing a one-day warming trend with temperatures one to three degrees warmer than today. There is a 20 to 70 percent chance for triple-digit temperatures to return next Wednesday and Thursday for the San Joaquin Valley as high pressure builds in; the greatest chances will be in the southern valley and in the larger urban areas. Valley winds will largely be from the northwest due to the temperature disparity. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at another trough approaching the Pacific coast late this week into next weekend. If this holds, conditions will be very similar to those seen this weekend. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .FIRE WEATHER... While conditions are generally cooler than earlier this week, dew point temperatures are also lower, resulting in widespread relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range. As we have seen in previous days, hundred to thousand acre grass fires have sprung up as a result of these low RH values and stronger late afternoon winds. These values will continue well into next week, continuing an elevated risk for fire development. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/13/2025 15:19 EXPIRES: 06/14/2025 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...mccoy weather.gov/hanford