Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
423 FXUS66 KHNX 200933 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 133 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Periods of rain and snow showers across central California starting Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. 2. Potential for fog developing each overnight and morning during precipitation-free periods. Increasing chances into this coming weekend. 3. Below average temperatures continue for the region until early next week. && .DISCUSSION... After a small break from precipitation for the region, another round of rain and snow showers is projected for central California later this morning through Friday. This comes at the result of an additional low pressure system making its way into Northern California from the Gulf of Alaska over the next twenty-four hours. Snow levels with this system will be falling to 5500-6000 feet, though with this system having less moisture and moving out quicker than the storm over last weekend, less precipitation is anticipated. This being said, ensemble guidance still shows an 80 to 90 percent probability for 72 hour snowfall totals to exceed four inches at Tioga Pass, but with only a 10 to 20 percent probability for these amounts to extend to Lodgepole in Sequoia National Park. Meanwhile, under the aforementioned snow levels, there is a 40 to 50 percent probability for the San Joaquin Valley to experience greater than one tenth of an inch of precipitation, 50 to 60 percent for the Mojave Desert, and 70 to 80 percent for the Sierra Foothills. As the system tracks south on Friday, stronger winds are expected to develop in the Mojave Desert. Ensembles give a 60 to 70 percent probability for maximum gusts to exceed 40 mph on Friday, before dropping off for the weekend. As calmer conditions set up into the weekend, the influx of moisture over the last week is anticipated to lead to the return of widespread dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley as moisture evaporates from the surface each overnight period. This may be particularly evident towards the beginning of next week, when cluster analysis projects a weak high pressure ridge to build in over the western US. Throughout the current forecast period, temperatures will remain at or below season averages. Most areas of the San Joaquin Valley have less than a 30 percent probability to exceed 65 degrees through the next week, expect for Kern County, at a 70 to 80 percent probability on Sunday, November 23rd. While no risk of freezing temperatures in the valley areas just yet, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for lows to be under 40 degrees Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... 20 to 30 percent chance for IFR conditions, primarily for the northern San Joaquin Valley between 15Z and 21Z Thu due to rain showers. IFR or less conditions expected for the Sierra Nevada between 19Z Thu and 00Z Fri due to low cloud cover. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 11/19/2025 14:35 EXPIRES: 11/20/2025 23:59 On Thursday, November 20 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...SM weather.gov/hanford