150
FXUS64 KHUN 161924
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Deep convection has initiated in northeast MS into northwest AL.
This will slowly migrate northeast this afternoon and feed off of
SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 j/kg. More widespread clusters of
storms in central and south MS will also work their way northeast
toward the TN valley, however, latest HRRR runs have been showing
this deteriorate around 01-02Z, so there is considerable
uncertainty on how far northeast this will reach in the forecast
area. The main hazards from these storms will be cloud to ground
lightning and brief gusty winds. Overnight lows still look to be
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The upper trough will cross the lower MS valley on Tuesday
amplifying low to mid level wind speeds (into the 25-35kt range at
8h and 30-40kt range at 5h). Thunderstorms will become numerous
through the morning into the early afternoon. A few stronger
storms with gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible.
The slow progression of the trough axis may allow for repetitive
heavy rain episodes for some areas, so will have to keep an eye
out for locally excessive rainfall through Wednesday. With winds
veering to the southwest behind the trough axis, drier mid level
air may tend to erode the precipitation chances on Wednesday from
west to east. By Wednesday night into Thursday, flow will have
become west-southwest through a deep layer, further limiting rain
chances. Temperatures will remain rather persistent, with highs
in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows mainly in the lower 70 as
dew points remain in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Bottom line up front: Temperatures will be on the rise through the
weekend with the hottest temperatures and heat index values we have
seen so far this year. On top of that, there will be daily diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, so remember if you hear thunder or see
lightning, you are close enough to be struck, so head inside.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the region as we end the
week. As a trough digs into the West Coast, it will shift the ridge
to center over the TN Valley this weekend before shifting eastward
early next week. During this time, we will see a gradual increase in
temperatures with highs starting off in the upper 80s to 90 degrees
on Friday, and reaching the lower 90s across the board on Sunday.
Overnight lows will start off near normal in the upper 60s Friday
night, but reaching above normal values in the lower 70s by Sunday
night, not providing much relief from the heat. Moisture will be
trapped under this ridge, allowing for heat index values to reach the
100 degree mark this weekend, and daily chances (10-30%) for
diurnally driven convection. For heat safety information, please see
our website and social media accounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR flight weather conditions are expected through this afternoon
and evening except in and near TSRA areas. The highest chances of
TSRA are from 23-03Z and ceilings of 015-025agl (MVFR) and
visibility below 3SM (IFR) are likely. Lower ceilings of
010-020agl (MVFR) are forecast to develop by 13Z, but this may
need further amendments.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17