Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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002
FXUS64 KHUN 170459
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 855 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - High chances for showers return Saturday night into early
   Sunday morning, with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

 - Gusty winds 20-25 mph are expected Saturday afternoon through
   Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening
with high pressure in control of our sensible weather. It is a
good setup for radiational cooling in this dry air mass and a
clear sky. As a result, temperatures will drop into the mid to
upper 50s in most locations by early Friday morning. Expect more
of the same during the day on Friday, with clear/sunny conditions.
As a result of the ample sunshine, high temperatures will climb
into the low to mid 80s once again by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure will slide off to the east of the region Friday
night, inducing a return flow off the Gulf out of the southwest
during the day on Saturday. As a result, this drier continental
air mass will modify and moisten as seen by dewpoints rising into
the low to mid 60s by mid-afternoon (coupled with daytime heating
forcing highs well into the mid 80s). A sharp upper-trough will
eject into the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley
Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night (becoming
negatively tilted as it does so), forcing a cold front through
the Mid South and Tennessee Valley during the overnight hours. The
timing of this cold front will play a big factor on the potential
for any strong to severe storms as we`ll destabilize during the
day, but a capping inversion will return overnight. The shear
profile does favor organized convection, likely in the form of a
line of storms -- but some of this activity should be elevated,
especially if it moves into the region well after Midnight.

As of right now, it appears that the main timing would 06-12z
from west to east across the region -- with perhaps an hour or
two earlier start if the front progresses faster. Given some of
the uncertainties in the thermodynamic profile overnight, SPC has
placed the western half of the area in a Marginal Risk (Level
1/5). Expect this convection to quickly shift eastward across the
region, exiting by early to mid Sunday morning. In wake of this
front, a cooler/drier air mass will push into the region early
next week. More on this in the section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A cooler, drier air mass will filter into the Tennessee Valley in
wake of a strong cold front Sunday night as cloud cover begins to
dissipate. The mostly clear sky and dry air mass will allow for an
excellent setup for radiational cooling as low temperatures will
drop into the low to mid 40s. Quite the chilly start for the new
work week Monday morning. High pressure at the surface will build
back into the on Monday, with highs running about 10 degrees cooler
in the low to mid 70s underneath a mostly sunny sky. A second
shortwave will ripple across the lower Ohio Valley, sending
another reinforcing shot of cool air (along with some cloud cover
and very low chances (20%) for some light rain showers). High
pressure will build back in, but this cool, dry air mass will
settle into the region as highs will remain in the upper 60s to
lower 70s and lows will drop into the lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
with light winds and some passing cirrus clouds throughout the day
on Friday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24