053
FXUS64 KHUN 180327
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
927 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Low (10-40%) rain chances return to the forecast tomorrow for
   areas north of the TN River.

 - Higher (60-80%)rain and storm chances will return to the
   forecast on Friday for the whole area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

We will enter a pattern shift tonight moving away from our recent
sunny days towards increased rain chances and clouds through the
remainder of the week. Through the night, a mid level low will
translate from the Plains through the Ohio Valley. In response,
the corresponding surface low and fronts will progress towards the
TN Valley. Along and ahead of the leading warm front, both dew
points and cloud cover will increase. This will be a gradual
increase from west to east across the area. Initially the
increased cloud cover in our western areas overnight will aid in
keeping overnight lows near 50s degrees whereas easterly locations
that remain clear may be closer to 40.

Through the day tomorrow this trend will continue with dew points
rising from the 30s to near 60 degrees by the end of the day.
Winds will also increase with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. The
most interesting feature of note will be the passing surface low
tomorrow afternoon. The low and best forcing from the attached
surface low will pass to our north keeping the highest rain and
storm chances out of our area. However, the passage of the front
may provide enough forcing to prompt some showers and storms
tomorrow evening with best chances north of the TN River. We will
have sufficient shear that will be paired with weak forcing making
the presence of any instability the limiting factor. HIRES models
indicate a few hundred J/KG of CAPE possible tomorrow evening.
Should this align both spatially and temporally with the passage
of the cold front a broken line of showers and a few general non
severe thunderstorms look possible near and just after sunset. We
will be watching this trend over the next 24 hours to assess how
much instability will be present tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The short term forecast will live in between two systems. The
passage of the weak cold front on Tuesday night will have minimal
impacts to our high and low temperatures through the rest of the
week. Rather, a brief bout of high pressure will build in and
support highs in the mid to high 70s each day with lows in the
60s. These high temps will be present despite prolonged partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as both post frontal and pre frontal
clouds plague the local area.

By Thursday our attention will shift west as our next system
builds over the western CONUS. A mid level low will deepen and
translate east through mid week. An associated short wave will
ripple ahead of it through the TN Valley on Thursday producing
low rain and storm chances (10-30%) for areas north of the TN
Valley. While forcing will be weak, the high boundary layer
moisture paired with any instability may be enough to support a
few rumbles of thunder with any showers on Thursday. Even with the
mostly clouds countdowns highs will be in the mid to high 70s
area wide making for a muggy end to the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Our main feature in the long term will be the passage of an upper
low and associated surface cold front on Friday. While it is
still a little too early to nail down specifics, a few trends are
becoming apparent. Boundary moisture looks to be plentiful on
Friday with at least some instability present. This is favorable
for some stronger storms with the passage of the front. However,
the weakening low calls into question how much forcing the front
will maintain by the time it reaches our area. Without any
significant forcing, strong to severe storms will be less likely.
The front looks to pass late Friday evening into overnight,
potentially limiting the amount of instability present. We will
keep an eye on forecast details for this feature as it draws
closer.

Weak riding will build in behind the front inducing NW flow. This
will drop our temps to the mid to high 60s during the day and 40s
overnight. Unfortunately enough moisture looks to linger behind
the front to keep partly cloudy skies and low (10-30%) rain
chances each day through the weekend and into the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at both
terminals. Scattered clouds this evening will give way to CIGS
between 4000 and 10,000 feet after midnight. LLWS will be close to
criteria, but likely to weak to include. However, we will have to
monitor this in case low level winds pick up more than expected.
Winds will pick up some overnight, but mainly during the day on
Tuesday from the south and southwest to between 10 and 15 kts with
some gusts to around 20 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW