937
FXUS64 KHUN 022005
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
205 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Medium to high chances (50-95%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will move in Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
   evening as another front moves through the region.

 - There is a Marginal Risk for for flash flooding across the
   Tennessee Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s across the
area under mostly sunny skies, which is 5 to 7 degrees above
normal for this time of year. As the low pressure system over the
Plains deepens later this evening, the pressure gradient will
tighten over the local forecast area. This will result in winds at
times gusting up to 20-25 mph through the overnight hours. The
winds will keep the temperatures tonight mild with overnight lows
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Cloud cover is forecast to gradually
increase from west to east as we head towards sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The main focus for this week will be during the short term period
as a trough swings eastward from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough will continue to
dig southward as a potent shortwave rotates through the base of
the trough over AR/LA/TX Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This
will bring a sfc cold front through the area Tuesday evening into
Wednesday which will be the main driver for increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances midweek. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly dry throughout the day on Tuesday with increasing cloud
cover ahead of the trough and breezy, southwest winds with gusts
of 20-30 mph. The front approaches Tuesday evening with some
isolated showers and storms moving through our western zones ahead
of the main front during the time. As the main band of frontal
precipitation moves through, all areas will see 90-100 percent
chances for rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a
relatively slow moving frontal boundary and therefore, our
concerns for flash flooding start to increase, especially after
the amount of rain some areas of N AL received on Sunday. Most
areas will see an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts of 3-4 inches which on top of the 3-5 inches
received yesterday across NW AL, this could create some additional flooding
issues. Currently, we are in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall from WPC with this system with just the far northwestern
tip of Lauderdale County in a Slight Risk. Amongst the CAMs the
timing of the entrance of main band of precip is still slightly
varying but within the window of 10p-3a looks like the best
estimate for entrance into NW AL with exiting NE AL by 6 PM
Wednesday. There will be limited instability with the timing of
the frontal passage with best chances for thunder being on
Wednesday afternoon east of I-65 as the front works its way out of
north Alabama.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge
will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Thursday,
in the wake of a departing surface trough and axis of
rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly flow
aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with overnight
lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by
afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale
ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east-
southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low
across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be
far too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor
increase in cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this
system. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread
southeastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light
northerly winds in the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft)
expected to result in a continuation of dry weather from Friday-
Saturday night. Early morning lows in the m30s-l40s can be
expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with afternoon highs in the l-m
60s. Low chances for rain may return to parts of the region by
Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a weakening clipper system
diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower- latitude disturbance
shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf Coast. However, due to
vastly different model solutions at this time range, we will keep
POPs in the 10-20% range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The main
weather concern is gusty southeasterly winds with gusts up to 18
knots this afternoon and then increasing to 20-25 knots tomorrow
afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually increase from west to east
during the day tomorrow with a low chance of MVFR ceilings. For
now, kept it SCT and VFR, but will need to be something to keep an
eye on in later forecasts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH