410
FXUS64 KHUN 160436
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1036 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 933 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Sub-freezing temperatures continue tonight through early
   Tuesday morning.

 - A medium to high chance of showers along with a low chance of
   thunderstorms returns on Thursday.

 - Another system may bring low to medium chances of showers and
   storms for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

High pressure will continue to dominate the Southeast through
Tuesday afternoon. This feature has led to clear skies, which will
persist through most of Tuesday as well. The main concern will be
the cold temperatures tonight. Currently, values are in the mid 20s
to lower 30s across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Forecast lows are still on track to dip further, into the lower to
mid 20s by late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Please make
sure to bundle up if heading outside. Remember space heater safety
if using one to keep warm. Don`t forget about your outside pets -
if you are cold, they are too!

Through the day on Tuesday, southerly flow will begin to usher
moisture back into the region. This, in addition to clear skies,
will help begin to regulate temperatures. Highs on Tuesday are
therefore expected to reach the lower 50s for most locations. This
warming trend will then carry on into midweek, which will be
discussed more below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Upper ridging from early in the week will give way to a weakening
shortwave that is slated to move from the ArkLaTex over the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This may bring a low
chance (10-15%) of a few showers on Wednesday. However, on
Thursday into Thursday night, a stronger upper trough will dig
southeast over the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, high
pressure over the Southeast will shift east on Wednesday as a
weakening cold front approaches. A stout low pressure system over
the northern Plains will then swing over the Great Lakes region
through Thursday night, with its cold front sweeping over the
Southeast during this time as well. This will be the main time
frame to watch for the short term, as this front will bring medium
to high chances (50-90%) of showers and a low chance of storms to
north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

Guidance shows the bulk of the best dynamics remains just to our
north, along with ample bulk shear as well. One of the big
questions will be instability. Will enough develop and, if so,
will it be elevated or will some be surface-based? If some
instability can become surface-based, then the potential for
strong to severe storms increases. This will be monitored, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this time. Current thinking
is that the instability, if any can be realized, will be elevated
and lead to mostly general thunderstorms. Stay tuned and check
back for updates!

Another interesting point to note is that model PWAT values range
between 1.1-1.3 inches Thursday/Thursday night. When compared to
BMX Sounding Climatology for this time of year, that lies right
around the 90th percentile (which is 1.2 inches). This means that
these showers/storms could be efficient rainfall producers and
bring heavy downpours. We are not outlooked for excessive rainfall
from WPC currently, but this is just something to watch over the
coming days.

As for temperatures, expect a warm up through Thursday. Highs are
forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s by Thursday, with
lows also increasing into the upper 30s to mid 40s by Wednesday
night. As rain chances increase and the cold front pushes through,
lows Thursday night are expected to be cooler (in the upper 20s
to lower 30s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

By Friday, the aforementioned upper trough will swing to the
east, with mainly zonal flow taking hold over the region through
much of the weekend. By late weekend into Monday, northwest flow
will develop aloft over the Tennessee Valley due to a
strengthening upper ridge over the central CONUS. Surface high
pressure looks to build over the Tennessee Valley Friday into
Saturday; however, this will be short lived as another cold front
moves over the region from its parent storm system to the north
for late weekend into early next week. In addition, a low pressure
system may form over eastern Texas and slide northeast along that
cold front. We`ll need to keep an eye on how these features
evolve as they will effect our rain and storm chances. Thus, with
much uncertainty in the model guidance at this point, generally
low to medium (20-40%) chances of showers and storms are given by
the NBM from Saturday night into early Monday.

After a cool down on Friday after FROPA, expect another warming
trend to take hold from Saturday through early next week. Highs on
Friday are forecast to be in the 40s then warm into the lower to
mid 60s by Monday. Lows will follow a similar trend, likely
warming into the mid to upper 40s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL
and KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC