552
FXUS64 KHUN 312244
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
544 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. No rain is
anticipated through tonight. Current temperatures are in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees and highs are still on track to top out
in the lower 80s (especially along and west of I-65). A reminder
for those sensitive to air quality to take any needed precautions
today and even through early next week due to wildfire smoke from
Canada that has moved into the region. Lastly, lows are expected
to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.

Previous Discussion:

Mixed reviews on today`s weather. We finally have a drier weather
pattern in play now with lower humidity, but the pattern change
and northerly flow aloft has now brought a large stream of
wildfire smoke from Canada south into the region. Per satellite
imagery, the thickest and most opaque band of smoke has shifted
just southwest of here and was extending from western MO through
northern MS into central AL. Less opaque smoke still provided a
very colorful sunrise this morning. UAH RaDAPs Ceilometer data
indicates the greatest backscatter was around 2-3km aGL and thus
far, the surface visibility is not being affected. Even so, those
sensitive to air quality may need to take precautions today and
through the weekend (maybe into early next week). Otherwise, the
forecast remains largely unchanged today. If the more opaque smoke
were to shift back east, temperatures may be stunted by 1-2
degrees, but for now, will stay the course with lower 80s for
afternoon highs. Tonight`s lows will dip into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. The compact vort max over SD will zip south into OK/AR,
but any precipitation with this will remain well to our west in
western AR and OK. A frontal boundary will start to also slip
south through the OH valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 915 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

The shortwave trough will drop through MS/LA on Sunday as the
frontal boundary weakens and sags into TN. Afternoon heating will
generate isolated to scattered convection along and near the I-40
corridor. There is considerable uncertainty if this activity will
maintain itself before reaching north AL and southern TN Sunday
afternoon or evening. For now, will continue with generally low
PoPs for this. Afternoon highs will once again be in the lower 80s
(upper 70s Plateau areas).

High pressure at the surface will sink into the central
Appalachians on Monday as the trough axis shifts to the east
Coast and the lower MS valley wave pivots into the FL peninsula.
5h ridging will shift east into the eastern Corn Belt through the
Texas Monday, and into the southeast U.S. Tuesday. This will bring
the entrance of more summer-like warmth to the region. Highs in
the lower to middle 80s Monday will rise to the middle to upper
80s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Summer conditions will continue on Wednesday amounting to another
day with highs in the upper 80s. A pattern switch will arrive in
the form of a cold front at the end of the week. The approaching
front will increase rain and storm chances on Thursday and
maintain elevated chances for rain and storms through Saturday as
it stalls to our NW. Highest rain chances will be found in the
afternoons at around 50-70%. Widespread severe weather looks
unlikely at this time due to the lack of any significant shear
while the front remains to our NW. That being said, long range
models do indicate a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE each afternoon
which will likely allow for a few strong to severe storms within
the larger area of convection with the main threat being damaging
winds. We will continue to monitor this trend as next weekend
draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds will continue
through the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH