403
FXUS64 KHUN 160634
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
134 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Bottom line up front: Heat Advisory is in effect from 10am to 7pm for
northwest AL and north central AL as highs climb into the low to mid
90s and Heat Index values reach 105 to 108 degrees. Note that
dangerous heat will persist through the week so heat safety will
remain a priority.

High pressure remains anchored across the Southeast today with a
tropical disturbance off the FL Panhandle. With dewpoint depressions
so low, nearly calm winds and mostly clear skies, patchy fog may
develop this morning. Will not rule out a few locations, mainly near
bodies of water and in valleys, seeing dense fog much like the past
two nights. Fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise. A low chance
(10-20%) of diurnal showers and thunderstorms exists again today. No
widespread severe threat, however storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Regardless of the convection, daytime highs will climb into the low
to mid 90s. With dewpoints remaining elevated in the lower 70s, this
will push Heat Index values to 100 degrees and above. Locations in
north central AL and northwest AL could see Heat Index values up to
108 degrees. With this, a Heat Advisory is in effect from 10am until
7pm. Be sure to practice sun and heat safety.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Synoptics will have a much greater influence in the short term
forecast as we head into the second half of the work week. Two
features will drive our local weather. To our NW paired with a
surface low pressure system will drape a cold front across the NE
CONUS from Wednesday into the weekend. To our SE, Invest 93L will
continue to be pushed west across the Gulf coast as surface high
pressure nudges westward into the FL Peninsula. Despite these two
synoptic features sandwiching us to the north and south. local
impacts will be very familiar. The proximity of these two
features will keep tropical moisture trapped in the TN Valley and
allow for perhaps slightly higher diurnal rain and storm chances
each afternoon.

This slight increase will have an impact on our afternoon high
temperatures and play into the decision on extending the Heat
Advisory. Current forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s each
day. Should afternoon showers fire up, we may not reach our
afternoon forecasted high each day. Thus, extensions to the Heat
Advisory will likely be evaluated on a daily bases through at
least Thursday as forecasters have the chance to look at the most
recent HIRES guidance regarding high temps, dew points, and storm
coverage and timing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Long range models show mid level ridging retrograding across the
Gulf coast through the start of next week. This unfortunately
will amount to more of the same for the long term forecast. High
pressure will keep elevated dew points and temperatures anchored
to the TN Valley. This will amount to apparent temps near and just
over 100 nearly everyday of the long term forecast. Likewise,
daily afternoon rain chances look to remain in the forecast.
Around and along the northern edge of the ridge, NW flow may
support MCS development in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley as
we head into next week in. We will be keeping an eye on this trend
should dying MCS try to drop into our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 12011 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at KHSV and KMSL through most of the
TAF period. Included fog at KMSL but low confidence in how low VIS
could go, so kept it MVFR and will monitor ob trends. Diurnal
convection will be isolated across north Alabama, thus low
confidence in direct impacts to terminals and kept it out of this
TAF forecast package.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS