731
FXUS64 KHUN 020333
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Light rain and drizzle will continue intermittently overnight
   into Monday morning.

 - Medium to high chances (50-90%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will return during the middle part of this week
   as another front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low chances (15% or less) of light showers and drizzle will
continue intermittently through the overnight hours before
tapering off Monday morning as a shortwave trough shifts out of
the Tennessee Valley. Low stratus clouds will persist overnight
along with breezy winds up to 15-20 mph will will prevent any fog
formation.

Monday brings mostly dry conditions as an upper level ridge shifts
back into the area from the Gulf and clouds gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon. Highs will warm into to the low to mid
70s, which is slightly above normal (~2-5 degrees) for this time
of year. Continued breezy, southerly winds will advect moisture
into the Tennessee Valley ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
(more on that in the short term below).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main feature of interest within the short term period will be
an upper level low and subsequent trough swinging eastward through
the Plains on Tuesday, bringing a cold front towards the region.
As this front enters the mid-Mississippi Valley, models show it
slowing down with some shower/storm development ahead of it. This
activity should slowly work its way into northern AL and southern
middle TN Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current model
sounding profiles indicate the nocturnal arrival of this system
will keep available instability very low and lapse rates capped
around 5-6 C/km. Therefore, this continues to look like a primary
threat of heavy rainfall as PWATs reach around 1.5-1.7" (90th
percentile per BMX sounding climatology). While shear is parallel
to our boundary (favorable for flash flood potential), storm speed
and Corfidi upshear vectors are forecast to be 20-30 mph, which
should limit the flash flood threat due to faster moving storms
and decreased potential for training. Overall QPF for Tuesday
through Thursday has decreased with this forecast package,
bringing widespread 1-2" of rainfall with localized higher amounts
up to 4". With this morning`s rainfall in NW AL, we will be
primarily concerned about that region due to antecedent
conditions/saturated soils.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge
will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Wednesday
night and Thursday, in the wake of a departing surface trough and
axis of rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly
flow aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with
overnight lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by
afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale
ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east-
southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low
across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be far
too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor increase in
cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this system. At the
surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread southeastward in
conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light northerly winds in
the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft) expected to result in a
continuation of dry weather from Friday-Saturday night. Early morning
lows in the m30s-l40s can be expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with
afternoon highs in the l-m 60s. Low chances for rain may return to
parts of the region by Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a
weakening clipper system diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower-
latitude disturbance shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf
Coast. However, due to vastly different model solutions at this time
range, we will keep POPs in the 10-20% range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
lowered ceilings. Wind shear has been included at KHSV with 35 kts
of southeasterly shear at 2000ft. Additionally, gusty sfc winds up
to 15-18 kts have been left in the TAF for now but will be
decreased if gusts are not realized within the next 1-2 hours as
winds may be overdone. Clouds will prevent fog formation
overnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...HC