734
FXUS64 KHUN 170349
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1049 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Strong storms have pushed northeastward along an outflow boundary,
out of our County Warning area this evening. Stratiform rain
remains over portions of northern Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee and will likely continue through the next couple of hours
ahead of an upper level trough dipping through the Mississippi
Valley. Dry weather is forecast to return to the area briefly
overnight, however, redevelopment of showers is forecast by around
10-11Z through NW AL. Showers should generally stay contained to
NW AL through the morning hours before increasing in coverage as
well as intensity through the afternoon as a result of diurnal
heating. Weak shear should dissuade organized severe convection,
however, sufficient CAPE as well as low level lapse rates will
support gusty winds and frequent lightning in strong storms
throughout the afternoon hours.

In addition to the wind and lightning threat, a risk a flash
flooding also exists Tuesday through Wednesday morning as storms
are likely to train over the same locations and produce moderate
to heavy rainfall. Therefore, expect at least ponding of water in
low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Hazardous road
conditions may also be observed in areas where strong storms form
and rainfall rates are high.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances should begin to gradually decrease
after sunset on Tuesday and officially come to an end around
midnight. Low temperatures are forecast to drop to the upper 60s
to lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Cloud cover, along with
lingering breezy winds, should deter fog formation.

As the aforementioned upper level trough axis continues to slowly
move eastward, shower and thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday
with coverage and intensity peaking during the afternoon hours due
to diurnal heating. Soils will be saturated throughout most of the
Tennessee Valley, allowing an increased flooding risk with any
storms that move through the area as rainfall rates are expected
to be high with stronger storms. Sufficient instability as well as
shear will allow for strong storms to be possible again with gusty
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning to be the main hazards.
Despite not being officially outlooked for severe weather at this
time, a severe storm cannot be ruled out with the primary threat
of damaging winds.

Wednesday night into Thursday, WSW flow allows drier air to filter
in and limited rain chances through the area as lows drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. This break in rainfall will be short-
lived, however, as rainfall once again returns on Thursday as a
cold front, stemming from a parent low pressure system in the
northeast, approaches the area from the northwest. Strong storms
along the front, once again, cannot be ruled out with the primary
concern of gusty winds as well as frequent lightning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

After the frontal passage Thursday night, dry air filters in from
the northwest. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in
from the west this weekend, allowing a warming trend through the
weekend into early next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast
to warm into the low to mid 90s by Sunday and Monday with heat
indices near 100-105 degrees. If trends continue on the track they
are on, heat products may be considered if heat indices are
forecast to exceed 105 degrees. Overnight lows are forecast to
drop into the low to mid 70s, which will not provide much relief
from heat. Along with the heat concern, daily thunderstorm
chances (30% or less) continue- peaking during the afternoon
hours. However, heat will be the primary concern heading into the
weekend into early next week. Those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration will likely be affected in addition to
heat sensitive industries and infrastructure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers are forecast to continue to be within the vicinity of
both KHSV and KMSL through the next several hours before dry
weather returns overnight. MVFR conditions are forecast early
Tuesday morning as lowered ceilings move into the Tennessee
Valley. MVFR conditions should persist through tomorrow along with
additional shower/thunderstorm chances through the day, peaking
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...HC