151
FXUS64 KHUN 101148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
548 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Confidence is increasing in the potential of cold conditions
   early next week (~25% probabilities for low temps in the teens
   Monday morning).

 - Low chances of Precipitation return to the forecast Saturday
   night as a cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 426 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

West-northwest flow aloft of 45-55 knots will gradually back to
the west by sunrise and increase rather substantially into the
90-100 knot range by late this afternoon. This will occur as a
shortwave trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains into
the southern Appalachians in the broader circulation around a cold
core vortex dropping southward across eastern Ontario. In the
low-levels, the local pressure gradient is already in the process
of contracting between a high situated along the southeastern
Atlantic Coast as a surface low tracking into the Lower Great
Lakes. Due to the combination of strengthening SSW flow and an
abundant coverage of high clouds, development of mist/fog appears
unlikely this morning. However, a notable gradient in temperatures
currently exists across the CWFA, with u20s in the wind-sheltered
valleys of Dekalb County and l40s across northwest AL.

Shortly after 12Z, surface winds will veer to WSW and strengthen
further, with frequent gusts of 25-35 MPH expected until the
pressure gradient begins to relax late this afternoon (as a cold
front enters the region). Although solutions from several of the
0Z CAMs suggest that increasing deep-layer ascent related to the
approaching mid-level trough may support a narrow band of low-
topped showers along the front, boundary layer moistening may not
be sufficient as dewpoints may only have time to recover into the
lower 40s. However, we have made a minor increase in POPs (into
the 10-20% range) between 18-0Z to reflect this scenario. Highs
will range from the u40s-l50s in elevated terrain to the m-u 50s
in the valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

In wake of the front a brief cool down will take place Wednesday
night as lows will drop back into the 20s and highs on Thursday
will only peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s despite the ample
sunshine. This will change on Friday as a ridge axis builds across
the Deep South and Tennessee Valley. Plenty of sunshine and
southerly winds will help to boost highs into the upper 50s to
lower 60s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

High pressure at the surface will promote fairly tranquil
conditions Friday night into Saturday, with zonal flow continuing
aloft. This will result in another fairly mild day on Saturday
with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s once again. A
weak shortwave will bring another cold front through the area.
Modest moisture return ahead of this feature should allow for some
low chances (20-30%) for light precipitation Saturday night,
before rapidly tapering off between 09-12z Sunday morning.
Depending on the timing there could be a brief window for
precipitation to mix with snow (with no impacts), but for a vast
majority of locations think this will remain a cold rain -- with
precipitation ending by the time the subfreezing air arrives.

A much colder air mass will arrive on Sunday, with highs
struggling to climb much above the 40 degree mark. Then, a clear,
cold, dry night will knock lows into the upper Teens to lower 20s
Sunday night. This colder air mass will quickly begin to modify
monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in and winds veer back
to a southerly direction. This will allow highs to climb back to
seasonable norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as bkn-ovc Cs will continue to spread across the region
early in the period. As SSW winds of 5-10 kts veer to WSW and
increase to 14G26 kts by 15Z, the risk for LLWS will diminish, but
wind speeds will remain in this range for most of the day before
shifting to NW and subsiding late in the aftn as a cold front
crosses the region. A few showers may occur in the vicinity of the
frontal wind shift, but anticipated coverage is too low to
include in the TAFs attm. After a brief period of clearing, broken
high clouds will return this evening, but present indications are
that lingering postfrontal stratus will remain displaced to the
N/E of the terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD