627
FXUS64 KHUN 241148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
548 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 458 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Patchy fog forecast tonight into early Monday morning.

 - High chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
   Tuesday, with a low chance of severe thunderstorms (Marginal
   Risk from SPC or 1 out of 5).

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late this week (on and around
   Thanksgiving).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

High cloud cover is streaming into northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee over the last hour or two. Temperatures with
clear skies and light or calm winds tonight have allowed
temperatures to fall into the upper 30s in the Winchester (TN) and
Tullahoma (TN) communities. Fort Payne has also dropped to around
39 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are in the 40 to 45 degree
range. Overall lowered low temperatures into the upper 30s to
lower 40s (eastern portions of the area) and further west kept
them mainly in the low to mid 40s.

Some very patchy fog could occur near bodies of water and in
typical fog prone locations, but should quickly dissipate as winds
pick up shortly after daybreak.

Cloud cover should continue to increase and thicken during the
day. Despite this, some morning sunshine and strengthening warm
air/moisture advection should allow temperatures to climb a bit
more today into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Models continue to move a strong shortwave and embedded upper low
east through zonal flow into Missouri late this afternoon into
early this evening. Very strong and deep forcing is shown near and
just ahead of the trough axis associated with this upper level
disturbance. A storm system develops with a cold front stretching
southwest from this disturbance aloft. This storm system will be
our weather maker around midnight tonight into the early afternoon
hours on Tuesday. Low/mid levels will still be fairly dry though
through much of the day today this far east. This drier air will
help to slow the movement of precipitation east until around or
just after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

After midnight tonight into early Tuesday morning, very strong
forcing moves into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee
and a deep enough moisture column in the atmosphere is in place.
PWAT values climb to between 1.2 and 1.4 inches. Those are high
values for this time of year. This combination will produce an
area of very heavy rainfall and maybe an elevated thunderstorm or
two. This large are of heavy rainfall will spread east to around
the I-65 corridor just before sunrise. Models have backed off on
surface based and elevated instability between 4 AM and 7 AM
compared to yesterday. Thus, though shear will be strong, not
seeing enough elevated instability even for strong to severe storm
development during that window in the morning. Thus, pushed
arrival time of severe storms a few hours later than earlier
forecast.

This does change though as we go into the morning and very early
afternoon hours though, as the LLJ moves through the area. This
will help to produce very breezy conditions with sustained winds
between 10 and 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph. Models
increase SBCAPE and elevated CAPE to between 500 and 1000 J/KG,
especially near and south of the Tennessee River. Guidance does
show low wet- bulb zero heights between 7500 and 9000 feet and
lapse rates between 7.1 and 7.6 degrees/km. Thus, with continued
strong forcing after 7 AM large hail could occur. Helicity remains
between 200 and 300 at least, so tornado potential remain in the
picture. Damaging straight line winds will be possible too.

It appears that this will work over the atmosphere pretty well by
the noon to 2 PM period across northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee. It looks like a good 1 to 2 inches with locally
higher amounts in spots will occur with this precipitation.

Some very meager surface based instability and good shear remains
in place in guidance (only 100-200 J/KG mainly). Thus, we will
have to watch for an extra round of low topped supercell
development later in the afternoon into the early evening hours
until the actual cold front moves through the area (especially if
a period of sunshine materializes - which models are not showing
right now). Confidence in this additional round of development is
extremely low, especially since the disturbance aloft really
falls apart Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, substantially
weakening the forcing over the area. Wednesday will be a blustery
day with much cooler temperatures in the 50s, followed by
overnight lows in the upper 20s to around 32.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 749 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Thanksgiving Day will feature dry and cooler temperatures as an
upper trough axis shifts east over the local area and our flow
aloft turns to the northwest. High pressure at the sfc will dig
across portions of the Midwest and into the OH River Valley and
sunny/clear skies will persist through the holiday. Aside from
slightly colder temperatures, it should be beautiful weather for
any outdoor plans as northwest winds remain light. Temperatures
Thursday night will drop below freezing so be sure to layer up if
headed outdoors Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. Dry
conditions and similar temperatures are forecast for Black Friday
with a slight increase in clouds as moisture increases slightly
from the northwest. Temperatures will begin to warm slightly over
the weekend as an approaching shortwave and high pressure building
over the Gulf turns our flow back to the southwest. Low chances
for rain will return to northwest AL Saturday afternoon increasing
to medium chances area wide on Sunday. We will have to monitor
trends on this next system, but for now heavy rain looks like it
will be the biggest threat with no strong signal for severe storms
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

High clouds moving across the terminals today will keep conditions
VFR through the day. Winds should pick up to between 5 and 10 kts
from the SE. Expect winds to become more from the east tonight.
MVFR CIGS should develop after 06Z at KMSL and 08Z at KHSV.
Predominant -RA was introduced after 07Z at KMSL and 09Z at KHSV.
There is some question if this might be too soon, but the strength
of the forcing should allow for it. A tempo for heavier rainfall,
possibly lower CIGS/VSBYS, and TS will likely be needed in the
next issuance around after 09Z at both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW