358
FXUS64 KHUN 090559
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Low to medium chances of freezing fog area-wide tonight into
   early Tuesday morning.

 - Subfreezing temperatures tonight, then a gradual warming trend
   through midweek.

 - Confidence is increasing in the potential of colder conditions
   early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

An area of Marginal Visual Flight Rule MVFR (cloud bases 1000-3000
ft AGL) stratus persisted over the Tennessee Valley as of the mid
evening. This persistent cloud deck effectively has made for about
4-5 days straight of no direct sun across the Tennessee Valley.
There could be changes in the near future, as the clouds were
showing signs of eroding mainly to our NW and SE. A clearing line
was noted from west of Bowling Green and Nashville to Memphis, and
to our SE from the western Carolinas and much of central and
southern Georgia, as well as parts of central and southern
Mississippi and Alabama. Under these clouds, 10 PM temperatures
have cooled into the mid/upper 30s (after earlier highs in the
low/mid 40s).

The forecast models for the most part all show these pesky stratus
should begin fading across the area, as we go to and past
midnight. Timing of them dissipating was picked up reasonable
well by the new NBM, but was on a slower trend than previously
noted. When the clouds fade, radiative cooling added to the mix
will result in temperatures plunging below freezing. These cold
temperatures plus residual moisture could result in fog and/or
freezing fog forming. Am thinking that fog coverage should be
patchy to areal in coverage. If freezing fog becomes more of an
issue, Freezing Fog Advisory could be required late tonight.

The long streak of sunless days hopefully will come to an end, as
enough drier air and somewhat better mixing is realized. Surface
high pressure now over the area will build to our east during Tue,
resulting in winds becoming light from the SE-S. With more sun,
high temperatures should rise to around 50 degrees, the warmest in
about a week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A deeper southerly flow should be in place for the mid week, as
high pressure remains to our east. The southerly flow and higher
heights/thicknesses will result in milder conditions. Lows should
cool into the 30s (lower 30s east to upper 30s west) with light
SE winds. A storm system forming over SW Canada will head eastward
along the border, reaching the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A
cold front trailing south of this cyclone is forecast to move
across this area Wed afternoon. Given that most of the energy
should remain closer to the main storm, no precipitation is
expected across this area. But with a SW-W flow and more sun, high
temperatures for the mid week should rise into the mid to upper
50s. Cooler air west of the front filtering in will make for
colder conditions Wed night with lows falling to around 30. Not as
mild Thursday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures are forecast Thursday
night, with lows falling into the low/mid 30s. Closer to normal
readings will return on Friday with highs into the mid/upper 50s
under partly sunny skies. With cloud cover on the increase, lows
Fri night should range in the 30s.

Yet another storm system moving in from the WNW will bring lower
end chances of showers across mainly the western areas Saturday
afternoon. Rain chances should spread eastward across the Valley
Saturday night, then end from west to east over our eastern areas
Sunday morning. This system will bring colder air from up north to
across the eastern CONUS early next week. Lows Sat night should
cool from the upper 20s our Tennessee counties to mid 30s south of
the Tennessee River. A chilly airmass will be more noticed
Sunday, with highs only in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south.
The start of the next work week, Monday will be on the cold side,
with highs during the day into the mid/upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Current satellite data reflects an overcast layer of stratus in
place across the entire forecast area late this evening, featuring
cigs in the 1500-2000 ft range. The stratus layer is not expected
to erode until after sunrise Tuesday morning, and should result
in MVFR cigs during this timeframe while reducing concern for
development of FZBR/FZFG. Beyond 15Z, VFR conditions will return
with only sct high-lvl clouds thru the end of the TAF period. Sfc
winds will remain from the NNW at speeds arnd 5 kts early in the
period, before becoming calm and transitioning to a SSW flow of
5-10 kts by 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD