200
FXUS64 KHUN 281529
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1029 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Clear skies across the area have allowed temps to rise from the
low 60s from early this morning into the low 70s as of around 9
AM. Surface high pressure will continue to build over the mid
Atlantic yielding continued SE flow and sunny skies. The SE flow
will advect warm Gulf Stream air into the area aiding temps rising
into the mid 80s by this afternoon. While this set up represents
a favorable patterns for diurnal thunderstorms, CAMS are very
pessimistic in our afternoon rain and storm chances due to a
complete and total lack of forcing. Thus, very low chances (10%)
have been maintained yet more likely than not the area will remain
dry through sunset.

High pressure will keep our overnight lows elevated with temps
only dropping into the mid 60s. With high dew point depression,
fog is not anticipated overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging will continue to
build over the area through the middle of the work week. With high
pressure off the Atlantic coast, SE flow will continue allowing
for several more hot and humid days both Tuesday and Wednesday.
With dew points in the mid 60s and temps in the mid 80s, diurnal
thunderstorms will be possible both afternoon. With very weak
forcing from low pressure building in the plains, any showers that
pop up will be possible of producing lightning and some gusty
winds. Storms that do pop up will dissipate as the sunset with
dry conditions during the overnight hours.

Thursday will mark our pattern shift as a mid level shortwave
ripples NE across the area. This will support elevated rain
chances beginning mid day Thursday and continuing through the end
of the week. While there will likely be storms embedded in the
rain, a widespread severe risk is not expected as prolonged
overcast conditions will limit our instability. The overcast
conditions will also limit temps on Thursday to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

The long term period will be more unsettled with the ridge
breaking down over the local area as a more potent shortwave moves
through the SE on Thursday followed closely by a mid-level trough
which will swing through Friday into Saturday. This second system
looks to have a decent surface cold front associated with it and a
noticeable drop in temps for the weekend looks to be in store.
The initial system on Thursday will bring medium to high chances
(45%-75%) for precipitation along with chances for thunderstorms
into Thursday night. Chances drop off slightly going into early
Friday but then ramp up again to 50%-60% as that secondary system
and cold front move through the area Friday afternoon/evening.
There is potential for a few strong storms Thursday and Friday but
will have to see how ensemble models evolve in terms of timing
and track of this system in the coming days. Rainfall totals look
to remain less than an inch for both systems combined so the
flooding threat looks to remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR weather should prevail for the TAF. Light E-SE winds early,
will become more from the SE at 5-10kt from a few hours after
sunrise into the late afternoon. Cumulus, and a few towering
cumulus are possible this afternoon, thanks to strong heating and
residual moisture from recent rainfall. Some of the shorter term
models were hinting at light showers forming in the afternoon. A
majority of the models however stayed dry, as will this TAF
issuance. Winds should back more to a ESE direction after dusk
remaining around 5-10kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...RSB