185
FXUS64 KHUN 010501
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Gusty winds 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph will continue into
   Sunday night.

 - Low to medium rain chances into the early morning hours on
   Sunday. Then medium to high rain chances of rain into the very
   early afternoon hours on Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm or
   two is possible.

 - Medium to high chances (40-90%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A weakening longwave trough axis continues to be pushed northeast
by an upper ridge building northeast from Texas this evening. This
longwave trough axis extends from Wisconsin SSE into Illinois and
further south into the Tennessee Valley area. This longwave
trough axis is being split into two more amplified areas (due to
the influence of the upper ridge building NE) and guidance
suggests it will continue to do that into Sunday morning:  1) a
more amplified trough axis over the eastern Gulf of America and 2)
a trough axis centered over western Iowa into the Tennessee
Valley area.

Despite some fairly strong forcing at 700 mb and at times 500 mb
over the area, the boundary layer continues to stifle precipitation
making it to the ground for the most part. Cloud cover, winds,
and easterly advection of very dry air is keeping the boundary
layer very dry. This has only allowed dewpoint depressions in most
areas to between 20 and 30 degrees at the surface. We will need
much more persistent and strong/deeper lift to remain over
northern Alabama for much precipitation to reach the ground and
accumulate (especially with most guidance continuing to show ESE
advection of dry air into the area into the daybreak hours on
Sunday). However, guidance does continue to show that increase in
deeper stronger forcing pushing into NW ALabama and southern
middle Tennessee between 3 and 6 AM. This should allow for
widespread rainfall (some moderate to briefly heavy) to develop
between 5 and 7 AM. This should push east during the mid/late
morning hours across northern Alabama. Winds should pick up to
between 10 and 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times early
Sunday morning as well. Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two
with some of the heavier precipitation towards daybreak and into
the early afternoon hours on Sunday. Rainfall over 1 inch is not
out of the question, mainly near and west of the I-65 corridor by
Sunday evening. Models are still hinting that the heavier rainfall
will shift northeast with time on Sunday afternoon, but some
lingering light rain/drizzle will continue. However, most of the
heavier rainfall accumulation will occur prior to 2 PM on Sunday.

Though we may get a break from more persistent/heavier rainfall in
the early/mid afternoon hours on Sunday, cloud cover should remain
in place. Between evaporative cooling given how low dewpoints will
be and continued cloud cover through the day, highs will likely
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations during the
day. Easterly winds between 15 and 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
are expected much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The back edge of the weakened longwave trough axis lingers over
the Ohio Valley SSW into NW Alabama through Sunday night. This
could produce some additional low clouds and light rain or
drizzle. Not much cold air in place behind the associated frontal
boundary with this longwave trough axis. Lows Sunday night should
only drop into the upper 40s to around 56 degrees in higher
elevations. Winds look to remain breezy with sustained winds of 10
to 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph possible.

During the day on Monday, the longwave trough axis dissipates and
a strong upper ridge begins to build over the southeastern states.
Not sure how much sunshine we will see, especially west of the
I-65 corridor on Monday. This will likely help to keep highs from
climbing much above the upper 60s to around 75 degrees in most
locations.

Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridge continues to amplify
and remain over the Tennessee Valley area. At the same time, an
amplified longwave trough axis quickly tries to move east into the
upper ridge. By this time most guidance moves the center of the
upper ridge east over the east coast of North Carolina. The
longwave trough axis moves into the Midwestern states as well.
This should keep deep moisture and forcing well west of the area.
It should be warmer with more sunshine expected. Highs should top
out in the lower to mid 70s at least (could be a bit higher than
models currently think given the strength of the upper ridge).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

We could get some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop as
early as Tuesday evening as the longwave trough axis and
associated surface front push east into eastern Arkansas/western
Mississippi. Better chances for rain look to develop overnight
into Wednesday morning over northwestern Alabama. This still looks
to be a heavy rainfall event given several aspects of the
evolution of this storm system. Overall surface based instability
will be very hard to get and 0-6 km bulk shear does not look quite
as strong as a few days ago. However, PWATS will be high for this
time of year (1.5 to 1.65 inches). Also, during the day on
Wednesday as the front moves closer to the area, upper level
diffluence will be strong west of the I-65 corridor and we will be
in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Also, a 40
knot 850 jet will be over the area as well. This all points to
very strong/deep lift that will be in place, maybe primarily over
areas west of the I-65 corridor into northeastern Mississippi. One
to three inches of rainfall with locally up to 4 inches looks
possible in those areas. It does look like there will be a decent
drop off in rainfall totals near and east of the I-65 corridor
(maybe not even over 1 inch). A few models are hinting that higher
amounts over 5 inches could be possible in NW Alabama through
Wednesday evening. One of the main reasons this setup may occur is
the stoutness of the upper ridge just off the coast of the
Carolinas and Virginia. The upper low butts heads with this
feature during that period before finally moving northward over it
late Wednesday night into Thursday, taking precipitation
northward with it. Wednesday should be cooler again with clouds
and precipitation expected. Highs will only reach the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Not much change into Friday with lingering cloud cover as the
upper low continues to move northeast into the central Great Lakes
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2026

A very dry boundary layer continues to keep any rain from
reaching the ground at the terminals so far. Wind shear around 40
knots from 120 degrees is expected at the start of the TAF period.
Expect this to eventually change towards 8Z at KMSL and 10Z at
KHSV, as winds at the surface pick up and drop wind shear below
critical levels. Introduced predominant -RA at those times at the
terminals. Still expect mainly VFR conditions though with
CIGS/VSBYS. By 11Z at KMSL, expect RA to occur and MVFR CiGS/VSBYS
to be predominant. Expect this to occur a bit later at KHSV
closer to 14Z. A four hours prob30 group for TSRA was included at both
terminals for possible elevated convection (KMSL - 11Z to
15Z/KHSV - 14Z to 18Z). Some IFR CIGS or VSBYS could occur if the
occur at the terminals. MVFR CIGS should stick around, but expect
-RA to return after 19Z at KHSV and 16Z at KMSL.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH