330
FXUS64 KHUN 161424
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A warm and humid day is ahead as deep southerly flow persists
ahead of the mid/upper trough positioned in the Ozarks through
east TX. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s for
most areas, perhaps touching 90 in a few spots. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon during peak
heating. We will also be watching a weak impulse drawn northeast
ahead of the trough that will produce a band of thunderstorms this
afternoon in central and northern MS while another cluster
develops in southern MS. These should arrive this evening in north
AL and southern middle TN. The main hazards with these storms
will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds of 30-40 mph and cloud to
ground lightning. The storms will rapidly shift northeast and loss
of heating will likely dissipate most of the activity by mid
evening. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The upper trough will cross the lower MS valley on Tuesday
amplifying low to mid level wind speeds (into the 25-35kt range at
8h and 30-40kt range at 5h). Thunderstorms will become numerous
through the morning into the early afternoon. A few stronger
storms with gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be possible.
The slow progression of the trough axis may allow for repetitive
heavy rain episodes for some areas, so will have to keep an eye
out for locally excessive rainfall through Wednesday. With winds
veering to the southwest behind the trough axis, drier mid level
air may tend to erode the precipitation chances on Wednesday from
west to east. By Wednesday night into Thursday, flow will have
become west-southwest through a deep layer, further limiting rain
chances. Temperatures will remain rather persistent, with highs
in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows mainly in the lower 70 as
dew points remain in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Bottom line up front: Temperatures will be on the rise through the
weekend with the hottest temperatures and heat index values we have
seen so far this year. On top of that, there will be daily diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, so remember if you hear thunder or see
lightning, you are close enough to be struck, so head inside.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the region as we end the
week. As a trough digs into the West Coast, it will shift the ridge
to center over the TN Valley this weekend before shifting eastward
early next week. During this time, we will see a gradual increase in
temperatures with highs starting off in the upper 80s to 90 degrees
on Friday, and reaching the lower 90s across the board on Sunday.
Overnight lows will start off near normal in the upper 60s Friday
night, but reaching above normal values in the lower 70s by Sunday
night, not providing much relief from the heat. Moisture will be
trapped under this ridge, allowing for heat index values to reach the
100 degree mark this weekend, and daily chances (10-30%) for
diurnally driven convection. For heat safety information, please see
our website and social media accounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low stratus clouds will temporarily provide MVFR cigs (~1500 ft
AGL) at both terminals thru 16Z before lifting/scattering. As
partial clearing begins later this morning, the local airmass will
quickly destabilize, sustaining clusters of TSRA that will spread
into the region from the west by mid/late aftn. Based on a
consensus of high-res model guidance, we have included PROB30
groups for TSRA and related MVFR cig/vsby reductions from
20-2Z/MSL and 22-4Z/HSV, although this will likely need to be
refined as we see convection develop to our west later this
morning. AWWs for lightning and strong wind gusts may be needed
during this period, as well. In the wake of evening precipitation,
low stratus clouds will quickly redevelop across the region,
perhaps resulting in MVFR cigs once again prior to the end of this
forecast period. Sfc winds will remain from the SSW at speeds of
5-10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...70