743
FXUS64 KHUN 272346
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
646 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Mild and dry weather continues across the area as high pressure
enforces an unseasonably cool airmass over most of the eastern
CONUS. Current temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid 80s in
the Tennessee Valley as high clouds continue to increase from the
northwest. With the drier airmass, no fog is expected overnight.
No major changes were made during the afternoon update.

Previous Forecast:
Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today, with high
pressure at the surface remaining the dominant weather feature,
while northwesterly flow aloft is helping to reinforce this
cooler, drier air mass. The end result will be another mostly
sunny and dry day across the Tennessee Valley, with high
temperatures again running a few degrees below normal for late
August. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with
Min RH values between 30-35% making it feel quite comfortable
outside. Cloud cover will increase this evening and overnight as a
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. These clouds will
help keep temperatures warmer by 5-10 degrees, with lows
remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The aforementioned shortwave will shift southeast into the lower
Mississippi Valley, with a surface low developing across AR/MS/AL
as it propagates along a warm front roughly along the I-22/I-20
corridor. The feature will trigger some light rain showers that
will move into the Tennessee Valley Thursday afternoon/evening and
into the Thursday night, with low to medium (20-50%) chances for
precipitation. One important note: given the dry air mass and
limited moisture recovery ahead of this system, don`t think QPF
will be very high at all (with accumulations mainly less than
0.25" to 0.50"). With the area of low pressure and the front just
to our south on Friday, have included very low/low chances (10-30%)
for some light rain showers again -- though most locations will
remain dry. Cloud cover will again help stunt temperatures,
keeping highs in the low to mid 80s. The boundary will sag south
by Saturday, resulting in a mostly sunny and warmer day as highs
return to the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Extended range guidance from the latest suite of global models
suggests that a weak area of low pressure will track slowly
eastward across southern GA and offshore Saturday/Saturday night,
before beginning to deepen off the coast of SC/GA on Sunday/Sunday
night. As an amplified shortwave trough drops south-southeastward
into the Mid-Atlantic states and evolves into a closed low early
next week, the low will continue to intensify as it lifts north-
northeastward off the Atlantic coast of the U.S. Although Saturday
should remain dry for our forecast area, a subtle surface trough
(extending northwestward off the developing low) may spread
eastward into our region by Sunday/Monday, resulting in the
development of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
(if CAPE is sufficient) during the afternoon/evening hours both
days. At this point, confidence in this scenario is low and for
this reason we have maintained POPs in the 10-20% range. The
surface trough will become less pronounced by Tuesday as its
remnants lift northwestward and out of the region, with dry
conditions returning by the last day of the extended period. Highs
each day will range from the u70s-l80s in elevated terrain to the
m-u 80s in the valley, with overnight lows in the u50s-l60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Although conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals
throughout the forecast period, overcast cirrostratus will
continue to spread southeastward across the region providing cigs
arnd 20-25 kft. Present indications are that our region will
remain on the northern periphery of an axis of rain/embedded TSRA
that will eventually set up from southern KS/northern OK into the
Lower MS Valley. Although probabilities for precipitation remain
too low to include at HSV, a PROB30 group for lgt RA has been
included at MSL from 18-24Z Thursday. Any precipitation reaching
the ground will fall from cloud layers with bases btwn 8-12 kft,
and should have little-no impact on visibility.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD