508
FXUS64 KHUN 071526
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1026 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - High chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms today into
   Monday.

 - Excessive rainfall and flash flood risk increase Monday into
   Tuesday.

 - Heat Risk increases by late this week. Heat index values in
   the middle 90s to around 100 degrees Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Clusters of moderate to heavy rainfall continue to shift
northeastward through the TN Valley this morning as a result of a
low to mid level shortwave advancing through the region. 12Z
soundings at both JAN and BMX indicate PWATs of ~2.1 to 2.2",
which is above the 90th percentile (near max values) at both
sites. Therefore, efficient rainfall production is expected to
continue through the morning hours. Additionally, slow storm
movement and the potential for backbuilding/training will increase
the overall flash flood risk through the afternoon. Widespread
rainfall amounts up to 0.5-1.5" is likely today with isolated
higher amounts up to 3-4" in areas where training occurs. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has continued to include all of
the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.
Weak lapse rates and relatively cooler temperatures will limit
instability this afternoon, preventing strong storms from being a
concern. For those with outdoor plans today, we continue to urge
caution on roadways as ponding of water and subsequent hazardous
driving conditions are likely. Between 00Z and 03Z tonight,
showers should gradually begin to decrease in coverage. Recent
CAMs continue to keep light to moderate showers over portions of
the area overnight with lingering cloud cover, which should
prevent fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Rain chances are forecast to ramp back up Monday into Tuesday as
a shortwave trough shifts east into the upper TN Valley. WPC has
the TN Valley outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall Monday and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
Tuesday as PWATs continue to climb into the 2-2.2" range.
Antecedent rainfall and saturated soils will contribute to ponding
of water in roadways and the overall risk for flash flooding. Due
to these saturated soils, trees have a higher risk of falling
even with sub-severe winds. Highs are forecast to gradually warm
during this time as well, reaching the low 90s in portions of the
area by mid week. More on this in the long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

On Wednesday, a trough will push out of the northwest U.S. and
through the Northern Plains, disrupting the vast ridge of high
pressure that extends across much of the central, southern and
eastern CONUS. The ridge will further be dampened as a wave of
energy rounds the base of this trough on Thursday and as the
trough progress eastward across southern Canada on Friday. While
we are under high pressure during the extended forecast, it won`t
feel like it. We`ll be trapped in with plenty of moisture for
diurnally driven convection each day (low to medium chances
20-50%). We will also turn up the heat as temps stay in the 80s on
Wednesday, then the upper 80s/lower 90s arrive on Thursday
through Saturday. It is important to note that this set up will
also push the heat index values into the upper 90s/lower 100s
Thursday through Saturday. If trends continue and values get a
little bit higher, a Heat Advisory may be needed on Friday. Yes,
it`s June, however we do not feel acclimated to the high heat and
humidity for this long, so ensure that you stay hydrated and slow
down to prevent heat related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered lgt-mod SHRA will continue to spread northeastward into
the region early in the period, before quickly expanding in
coverage and intensifying to include embedded TSRA btwn 14-16Z.
Once this regime begins, we have included TSRA as the prevailing
weather condition thru 22Z, as a brief break in the coverage of
precipitation may occur very late this aftn and extend into the
evening hours. Low stratus clouds will also be prevalent for much
of the period, providing IFR-MVFR cigs (with only a narrow window
for improvement btwn 22-2Z). Redevelopment of at least isolated
convection appears likely to occur in the 9-12Z timeframe on
Monday, and for this we have added a PROB30 group. Sfc winds will
remain from the SSE at prevailing speeds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...70