203
FXUS64 KHUN 152032
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
332 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Stubborn stratus/strata-cumulus that covered much of the area in
the morning and early afternoon, including along the AL/TN
border for the most part has finally scattered out. Because of
those clouds, temperatures over NW AL have warmed into the
mid/upper 80s. Areas formerly under those clouds were a bit
cooler, in the mid 80. Surface heating and resultant instability
has resulted in the formation of isolated showers, mainly across
parts of NW AL. A more organized area of showers/storms were in
progress from south/central MS to west/central AL. Movement of
this activity was east 15-20 mph.

Output from the various CAM solutions, taken together would
suggest isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon
into the evening. "General" intensity storms are expected with
weak shear and minimal upper support. Shower coverage should
become more isolated as we go into the late night. Low temps
tonight should be in the mid 60s to around 70 with light southerly
winds. Winds should stay up in the 5 mph range, along with an
expected redevelopment of stratus, which should help keep fog
formation minimized.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Not much change in the local weather pattern as we head into the
start of a new work week. A series of shortwaves will traverse
through the area, each bringing some extra lift needed to get
showers and storms to develop. Medium to high chances of precip is
forecast both Monday and Tuesday with the highest probabilities
being during the peak heating hours. Cannot rule out some stronger
storms with instability climbing to around 2000 J/kg each
afternoon. Weak shear will likely limit the severe potential, but
as is typical with these airmasses, remnant outflow boundaries
will need to be watched for locally enhancing some storms.
Temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will rise into the mid to
upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A Bermuda High will begin to nose into the Carolinas and Deep
South mid to late week, helping to promote a slightly stronger
southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi
Valley. This will help to reinforce this warm/moist air mass --
and also result in a gradual increase in temperatures each day
with plenty of heating helping to nudge highs back into the upper
80s and lower 90s Wednesday and Thursday and the low to mid 90s by
Friday and Saturday. The combination of the tropical air mass and
warmer temperatures will push heat index values into the upper
90s midweek and above 100 degrees late week. Additionally, plenty
of moisture will remain in place underneath this ridge, with
medium chances of diurnally driven convection in the forecast
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

MVFR stratus deck is slowly starting to lift this afternoon and
expect both terminals to improve to VFR in a few hours. Showers
and perhaps some thunderstorms may develop near the terminals late
this afternoon into the early evening. Have addressed this as a
TEMPO group with ceilings reducing down to MVFR within any
showers. Opted to leave thunder mention out due to low confidence
at this time. A lull in activity is expected overnight before some
lower ceilings arrive by daybreak. Thunderstorms are possible
tomorrow morning but coverage is uncertain so opted to leave them
within a PROB 30 group.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...GH