644
FXUS64 KHUN 311115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The center of a large area of high pressure continues to be
anchored over the Great Lakes region and northeast. Further south
over the Tennessee Valley area, some weak convergence boundaries/
fronts are in place. One of them extends from northern South
Carolina WSW through central Alabama.

Northwest flow aloft is in place near and north of the weak
convergence boundary through central Alabama. Some high clouds can
be seen in satellite imagery over northwestern Tennessee ahead of
some energy aloft in NW flow. This could bring some high clouds
into southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama overnight.
However, there will be clear skies at times through daybreak over
some areas. In areas that see less cloud cover (with light or
calm winds expected much of the overnight period), some patchy
fog is expected, especially east of the I-65 corridor. In many
locations in those areas temperatures have already cooled to
within two degrees of dewpoints. Not sure we will see dense fog,
given expected high clouds. It will be cool for this time of year
when you wake up though on Sunday with lows dropping into the
lower to mid 50s in many areas (with some 55 to 60 lows in other
areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A pattern change is on the way next week, bringing those picture
perfect Fall type days to an end. We will still have cooler temps,
but at the cost of having showers and thunderstorms return. The
previously mentioned shortwave will create a wedge on Monday that
will build into NE AL. This will lift a stalled boundary that is
currently south of the forecast area, northward and return a low
chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms. This boundary is
expected to push northward through the TN Valley, allowing for
Gulf moisture to return behind it.

From the other direction, a shortwave will slide southeast
through the Midwest, across the Mid MS Valley and into the TN
Valley by Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
to 20-40%. PWATS will increase up to 1.5" by Tuesday but shear and
steering flow is expected to be weak both Monday and Tuesday. At
this time, main hazards within any stronger storm would be gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The increase in cloud cover and rain chances will slide the
daytime highs from the lower to upper 80s on Monday, to the upper
70s to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows should remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

By mid week, a low pressure system is forecast to push southward
into the Great Lakes region- bringing the shortwave southeastward
into the Ohio River and northern Tennessee Valleys. A subsequent
cold front is forecast to form and push southeastward by Thursday.
There continues to be slight disagreement on the eventual
placement of the aforementioned shortwave and adjacent cold front,
however, trends continue to point towards the feature remaining
north of our CWA (primarily in middle Tennessee). Therefore,
continued with blended guidance of low to medium chances of
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The LREF shows
limited CAPE (~300-500 J/kg) with relatively weak shear and
unimpressive low level lapse rates (~6 C/km) Wednesday evening. We
will continue to monitor this trend as we push into early next
week. Post-frontal conditions are forecast to be cooler and dry
with dew points dropping into the low 50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Dry air in the boundary layer should keep any fog from forming at
the terminals this morning. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KTW