547
FXUS64 KHUN 281640
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1140 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 826 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers and a few storms
   will return to the forecast Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Low to medium chances (10-40%) for showers and a few storms
   will linger into the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 826 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A weak shortwave trough is traversing the Tennessee Valley today,
but given the dry air mass there will be little weather impact
besides some high clouds passing through the region. Some very
light returns were noted on radar, but given ceilings over 20
kft, don`t think this is reaching the ground and is likely virga.
These clouds will shift eastward by this afternoon, with mostly
sunny conditions prevailing for the remainder of the day. Once
again we anticipate dewpoints to mix out into the 40s, with Min RH
values dropping to around 30-40 percent as highs climb to the mid
70s. Despite the weak winds, caution is urged with any potential
outdoor burning due to the dry fuels and lower RH values. Mostly
clear and calm conditions will allow for good radiational cooling
tonight as lows drop to the low to mid 40s. Additionally, some
patchy fog may develop in sheltered river valleys once again late
tonight and have added this to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 826 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

High pressure will amplify across the Deep South Thursday and
Friday, resulting in sunny/dry and warm conditions. Would not be
surprised at all if temperatures trend at least a degree or two
high given the dry soils and magnitude of the ridge. As a result,
would expect temperatures to return to the upper 70s to lower 80s
in most locations both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Overnight,
good radiational cooling will allow lows to drop into the 40s with
the potential for some localized patchy fog again Thursday night
into early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Over the weekend, a quick pattern transition will take place, with
the 5h and 8h ridges shift east of the region. This will allow a
shortwave to enter the Ozarks and Mid South on Saturday into Sunday.
The greatest UVVs will be on Sunday for the local area with our
greatest shower chances. Only a slight chance of a thunderstorm
exists at this point with limited instability. QPF of 0.4-1.3 inches
with the highest amounts west of I-65 looks OK for now. With the
surface/wedging remaining across the Lee of the Appalachians into the
southeast U.S., a cool and fairly stable lower atmosphere is
expected. Chances wane late Sunday, with low chances of light rain
or perhaps some drizzle look favorable given shallow isentropic
ascent over the cooler airmass that arrives. By Monday into Tuesday,
minor upper ridging takes places and shifts into the Southeast U.S.
ahead of a strong deepening upper trough in the Plains states.
Southerly flow will increase Monday into Tuesday. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will take shape in the lower MS Valley Tuesday
in advance of the trough and cold front. But the deepening and
slow nature of the upper low may delay the arrival of widespread
precipitation until Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period with light winds and a mostly clear
sky. The one exception may be late tonight into early Thursday
morning when some patchy light fog may result in localized MVFR
conditions due to reduced visibilities.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP.24