597
FXUS64 KHUN 160233
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Ongoing shower and storm activity through the Tennessee Valley
should primarily be contained to our southern middle Tennessee
counties through the next few hours as a stationary front resides
in central Tennessee. No severe weather is expected as storms are
forecast to remain sub severe- especially as we continue into the
overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating. However,
moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected along with a low-medium
chance of lightning development. Shower activity should subside
by the early morning hours, before sunrise.

Additional shower and storm development is likely tomorrow (~60%)
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough dipping through the
lower Mississippi Valley. Southerly flow will allow an abundance
of moisture ahead of storm formation, which will likely be fueled
by daytime heating as partly to mostly sunny skies make an
appearance during the afternoon hours through most of the
Tennessee Valley. Weak shear and mid level lapse rates will limit
severe potential, however, instability and low level lapse rates
will be sufficient for stronger storms capable of producing gusty
winds (up to 40-50 mph) as well as frequent lightning.
Additionally, a flash flooding threat will exist as backbuilding
potential is present with corfidi upshear motion around 7-10 kts
and slow storm motion. Our PWATs throughout the area range from
around 1.7-1.9", which is nearing or above 90th percentile SPC
sounding climatology per BMX and OHX. Most of the area has been
outlooked by the Weather Prediction Center in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for flash flooding through Tuesday morning.
Shower/storm activity should subside during the overnight hours on
Monday (by around midnight).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

After storm activity ends, cloudy conditions are expected to
linger, which should deter fog formation. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additional
shower/storm chances are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons during peak heating hours, however, no severe weather
is forecast at this time. Similarly to Monday, strong storms
capable of gusty winds, lightning, and flooding cannot be ruled
out either day. Highs during this time are forecast to rise into
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Thursday, a cold front is forecast to
swing down from the northwest ahead of another upper level trough
forecast to move through the OH River Valley. This will result in
medium-high chances of showers and thunderstorms through the area
(50-80%) with some storms capable of becoming strong. However, no
severe weather is forecast at this time. High pressure is
forecast to set up through the the end of the week, allowing a
rise in temperatures and an increased concern for heat into the
weekend. More on that in the long-term below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Bottom line up front: Temperatures will be on the rise through the
weekend with the hottest temperatures and heat index values we have
seen so far this year. On top of that, there will be daily diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, so remember if you hear thunder or see
lightning, you are close enough to be struck, so head inside.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the region as we end the
week. As a trough digs into the West Coast, it will shift the ridge
to center over the TN Valley this weekend before shifting eastward
early next week. During this time, we will see a gradual increase in
temperatures with highs starting off in the upper 80s to 90 degrees
on Friday, and reaching the lower 90s across the board on Sunday.
Overnight lows will start off near normal in the upper 60s Friday
night, but reaching above normal values in the lower 70s by Sunday
night, not providing much relief from the heat. Moisture will be
trapped under this ridge, allowing for heat index values to reach the
100 degree mark this weekend, and daily chances (10-30%) for
diurnally driven convection. For heat safety information, please see
our website and social media accounts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Thunderstorms are forecast to linger in the vicinity of HSV
airport through 01Z before dry weather returns to the area.
Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast through both TAF sites
overnight with VFR conditions. Monday afternoon, a PROB30 group
was added for thunderstorms during peak heating hours. While PoP
chances are medium (~60%) during that time, confidence in
thunderstorms at the terminals is not high enough at this time to
add it in as a line within the TAF package yet as coverage will
likely be scattered.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC