481
FXUS64 KHUN 031127
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
527 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - A Frost Advisory remains in effect for NW AL early Monday
   morning. We will also be monitoring the development of fog
   (some of which could be dense).

 - Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend are expected through
   Thursday night.

 - Conditions appear conducive for a risk of severe thunderstorms
   at some point from Friday-Saturday night, but timing is highly
   uncertain at this range. A much colder airmass is expected in
   the wake of this system (early next week).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows an area of low clouds moving
southwest from east TN into northern AL. Ahead of this cloud
deck, fog have developed as dewpoint depressions are 0-2 degrees
with light winds and clear skies. Some of this fog is locally
dense with visibilities dropping down below 1 mile. The good news,
is that as the low stratus deck continues to drift south and west
this morning, fog should dissipate. The biggest uncertainty is how
long this takes and how far west it reaches. For now will not
issue any fog headlines, but conditions will be monitored through
daybreak. The frost advisory also remains across NW AL, but if
this stratus deck reaches out west it would limit the cooling
early this morning making frost less likely.

As for the rest of today, an overall pleasant Fall day is
forecast as high pressure moves overhead. The low stratus deck
should erode by late this morning. Expect temperatures this
afternoon under mostly sunny skies to top out in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 901 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Latest short range model data suggests that a mid-level
subtropical high will remain centered along the TX Gulf Coast on
Monday night/Tuesday, before slowly retreating westward from
Tuesday night-Wednesday night. As a result, unamplified west-
northwest flow of 30-40 knots will persist across the TN Valley
resulting in mostly clear and dry conditions. At the surface, a
ridge (initially centered to our west-southwest) will shift
northeastward across the TN Valley and into the southern
Appalachians on Monday night. This will provide another optimal
environment for radiational cooling, and with boundary layer
mixing tomorrow expected to lower dewpoints to some extent,
overnight lows should once again be in the m-u 30s. Thus, patchy
frost can be expected in some locations, with locally dense fog
possible in river valleys and near lakes.

During the period from Tuesday-Tuesday night, the low-level
anticyclone across the southern Appalachians will drift eastward
and weaken, with light southerly flow returning as a mid-latitude
trough and developing surface low track eastward across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. However, this will occur
with a negligible impact on dewpoints, and lows should still drop
into the l-m 40s Tuesday night (even after a warmer day on
Tuesday featuring highs in the m60s-l70s). Southwesterly flow in
the low-levels will strengthen on Wednesday as the deepening low
to our north advances further eastward into New England and its
weakening/trailing cold front drops southeastward through the
Lower OH Valley and Ozarks. This will contribute to a slight
increase in temperatures Wednesday afternoon, and with
considerable uncertainty regarding whether or not the dry cold
front will reach our region, we will maintain overnight lows in
the m40s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 901 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Global models are in general agreement that two distinct
mid/upper-level waves will travel cyclonically around a deep/cold
core vortex dropping southward in the general vicinity of Hudson
Bay over the course of the extended period. However, there are
significant differences within the GFS/GEM/ECMWF model suites
regarding the track and amplitude of the initial disturbance, and
this will ultimately have a large impact on local weather
conditions as we head deeper into the extended forecast period.

Both the GFS/GEM suggest that the initial mid-level trough will
be considerably more amplified (compared to the ECMWF), which
would bring a cold front through the region on Friday
afternoon/evening. Present indications are that low-level moisture
will quickly surge northeastward ahead of the front, providing a
sufficiently warm/moist and unstable airmass for the development
of a squall line immediately ahead of the front. In the presence
of strong deep-layer shear (westerly mid-level winds of 50-60
knots) and low-level shear (WSW low-level jet of 30-40 knots), all
modes of severe weather would be possible in this scenario.

Due to factors mentioned above, guidance from the ECMWF suggests
that the first cold front will stall across KY/TN on Friday/Friday
night. However, it does suggest the development of a QLCS (within
a similar kinematic/thermodynamic environment) ahead of a much
stronger cold front predicted to arrive Sunday morning. Regardless
of solution, it appears as if the second wave will undergo
significant amplification as it digs across the northern Plains
and into the Mid-MS Valley Saturday/Saturday night, allowing a
cold/arctic airmass to quickly spread southward through the Great
Plains on Saturday night and eastward into the Gulf Coast states
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A combination of dense fog and low stratus resulting in IFR to
LIFR conditions is impacting the terminals at the start of the
TAF period. The stratus is slowly moving south and west and is
currently anchored along and east of I-65 with fog to the west.
Fog should lift shortly after sunrise with the stratus taking a
bit longer to erode. Therefore, expect a return to VFR quicker at
MSL compared to HSV. By late this morning to early afternoon VFR
conditions return and continue through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ001>003.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ001>004-
     016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH