038
FXUS64 KHUN 221522
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Mostly dry weather forecast through Monday morning.

 - Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
   night into Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe
   thunderstorms.

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late next week (on and around
   Thanksgiving).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Patchy fog that formed this morning continues to influence some
portions of the area, however, the majority of it has dissipated
with sunrise and low clouds remain. While mostly zonal flow has
taken over the area, we still remain in a weak-forced area of
upper level DIV as a result of the 300mb jet. Therefore, cannot
rule out a few showers through the afternoon (especially in NE AL)
as the frontal boundary continues to shift southeastward.
Otherwise, partly sunny skies are forecast today with highs
climbing into the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, dry conditions are forecast as sfc high pressure pushes
in from the west. Lingering cloud cover should discourage fog
formation overnight, however, in areas of clearing (primarily in
NE AL and south of the TN River), there will likely be patchy fog
development as winds remain light. Low temperatures are forecast
to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 922 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Dry conditions remain Sunday with mostly sunny skies as clouds
begin to clear by the morning hours. An upper level closed low is
forecast to begin pushing eastward from the Baja California
region, bringing an upper level trough into the MS and TN Valleys
by Monday. In turn, cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon hours before rain chances are reintroduced. This will
be our main feature of concern through mid week as a frontal
boundary forces high chances of rain through our area Monday
night with a low chance of severe storms. More on this in the long
term below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the trough enters the MS Valley late Monday night, a 40-50kt
8h low level jet develops across the lower MS Valley. Dew points
in the 50s to lower 60s advect back into the region with a band or
line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. Once again,
weak lapse rates and limited CAPE values are indicated in
ensemble forecasts. Thus, confidence in a severe risk remain low
at this time. The cold front will bring a distinct cool down from
Wednesday into Friday. Highs on Thanksgiving Day and Friday will
only reach the lower to middle 50s (and cooler atop the higher
elevations). Morning lows Friday morning are projected to be in
the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

MVFR/IFR CIGS or VSBYS are expected at either terminal through
18Z. A tempo group to include -TSRA between 12Z and 16Z was
included at KHSV and at KMSL some VSBY drops to around 2SM
between 12Z and 16Z. Otherwise, winds will become westerly and
then northerly through the day.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KTW