659
FXUS64 KHUN 301424
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 - Light-moderate rain will develop northward into the TN Valley
   late Saturday afternoon, with a widespread coverage of rain
   anticipated from Saturday evening-Sunday morning. A few
   embedded thunderstorms may also occur (particularly across the
   southwestern portion of the forecast area).

 - East-southeasterly gradient winds will strengthen to 15-20 MPH
   on Saturday (with gusts of 25-30 MPH), and these conditions
   will continue through Sunday.

 - Low to medium chances (30-50%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a low amplitude ridge will progress
eastward across the southeastern CONUS over the course of the near
term period, in advance of an amplifying southern stream trough
(currently off the Pacific coast of southern CA/northern Baja) and
a weaker preceding wave that will lift northeastward from the
Upper Rio Grande Valley into the southern Plains. As this occurs,
winds aloft across the local CWFA will back from WNW to SW and
strengthen into the 15-25 knot range by 12Z Saturday, contributing
to a notable increase in high-level clouds (which should become
overcast in coverage later this afternoon). At the surface, our
region will remain under the influence of a gradually
strengthening high that will develop southeastward from WI into
the northern Mid-Atlantic states by the end of the period,
resulting in a developing CAD to the east of the central/southern
Appalachians. This will allow light ENE winds today to gradually
veer to ESE by Saturday morning. Although a few patches of virga
will likely begin to appear region-wide this evening, we expect
dry conditions to prevail through the period, with afternoon temps
expected to reach the u70s-l80s in the valley prior to the
decrease in insolation. Lows will be several degrees warmer
(m50s-l60s) compared to the past few nights, with conditions less
favorable for development of patchy mist/fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

During the day tomorrow, an amplifying southern stream trough
will eject northeastward from the Four Corners region into the
central High Plains, as a weaker preceding wave advances east-
northeastward from the southern Plains into the western TN Valley.
As this occurs, mid-level flow across much of the southern CONUS
will back to the SW and strengthen (along with an accompanying
increase in the SSE low-level jet to 15-25 knots). Present
indications are that pockets of light-moderate rain will spread
northwestward from the northeastern Gulf Coast throughout the day
within the strengthening deep-layer WAA regime, likely expanding
in coverage as it reaches our forecast area between 21-0Z. For
this reason we will be increasing POPs region-wide during this
timeframe. Otherwise, cloud bases will remain overcast and
progressively fall throughout the day, yielding cooler afternoon
highs (l-m 70s). It is also worth noting that east-southeasterly
gradient flow between cold air damming to our east and pressure
falls in the lee of the northern/central Rockies will increase to
15-20 MPH (with gusts of 25-30 MPH).

As the preceding mid-level wave tracks eastward and away from our
region Saturday night, mid-level flow will veer to WSW and
diminish. However, the low-level jet will veer to the south and
strengthen further into the 25-35 knot range ahead of the primary
southern stream trough as it begins to turn eastward into the MO
Valley (along the northern rim of a strengthening subtropical
ridge across northern Mexico and south TX). This configuration
will support a general increase in rainfall coverage and intensity
from Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible (primarily across the southwestern portion
of the forecast area, and in closer proximity to an axis of
richer low-level moisture/CAPE). Beneficial storm total rainfall
amounts of 0.25-0.5" are expected at this point.

Current thinking is that rain will gradually begin to diminish in
coverage during the afternoon hours on Sunday as the decaying
shortwave trough digs southeastward into eastern KY/TN and mid-
level winds veer to the NW. However, with little change in the
intensity/orientation of the low-level jet expected through 12Z
Monday, widespread low stratus clouds and pockets of light rain or
sprinkles will likely continue through the end of the period. Due
to both clouds and precipitation, highs will fall back into the
l-m 60s on Sunday, with overnight lows remaining in the l-m 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 742 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Northwest flow will become dominant aloft as the aforementioned
trough responsible for the rain over the weekend begins to exit
the eastern CONUS and upper ridging builds in ahead of our next
system. After overcast skies and rain on Sunday, temperatures will
rebound a bit on Monday with the building ridge to our west. Sfc
high pressure over the Appalachians will keep dry NE flow in place
and may be enough to result in clearing skies by Monday
afternoon. A closed upper low will dig across Oklahoma and into
the lower MS River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing
increasing chances for rain and a few thunderstorms. Model trends
over the past several days have been fairly inconsistent with this
storm system, with today`s runs continuing to slow the system
down as well as pulling the sfc low farther south. Since the
timing and evolution of this system will have big impacts on
rainfall amounts and any potential for strong storms, we do not
feel particularly confident in any specific details at this time.
What we can speak to is the continued trend with a slower system,
increasing our confidence that impacts to Election Day should be
minimal with only low chances for rain (15-25%) at this time.
Temperatures will remain near or just above normal for much of the
long term, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Late night patchy fog has produced brief VSBY reductions at some
of the terminals within the last few hours. Given 5SM with BR at
KMSL, have added a TEMPO for them through 13Z. Will stay with VFR
conditions at KHSV. Any fog that forms will quickly dissipate
shortly after daybreak as heating and mixing help it disperse.
Periods of high altitude clouds are expected across the area
today. Light winds early will become easterly 4-7kt in the late
morning and much of the afternoon. Winds should become light and
variable this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...RSB