869
FXUS64 KHUN 172348
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
548 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1042 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Slightly cooler temperatures today with very dry conditions in
   the afternoon.

 - Warmer temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week
   and in the weekend.

 - Rain chances return Tuesday night for parts of the area; better
   rain chances for the Tennessee Valley are forecast from
   Thursday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 212 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...Rest of the afternoon...

Areal temperatures were now in the mid 60s, with corresponding
relative humidity values reduced into the teens to around 20
percent across much of the Tennessee Valley. Fortunately this
time, surface winds were generally light and variable, thanks to
broad surface high pressure over the eastern Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians. The light winds, despite the low relative
humidity do help alleviate critical outdoor fire conditions.

This surface ridge should continue building to the SE as we go
into the evening and tonight. Temperatures should fall into the
upper 50s to around 60 by the late afternoon, then bottom out from
around 40 east to 50 west by daybreak Tuesday. Relative humidities
should increase into the 40s and 50s percent range late tonight. A
light easterly flow rounding the ridge will veer more from a SE
direction late tonight into early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1042 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry conditions will continue Tuesday, with surface pressure
forecast to be off of the VA/NC coast. A southerly flow rounding
the high (winds of 5-15 mph) will bring unseasonably warm
conditions, with high temperatures rising from the lower 70s east
to upper 70s west. A stronger system nearing from the west will
bring an increase in clouds, and return chances of showers across
portions of the area Tue night. The higher rain chances should be
more to the north, with lower chances south. Lows Tue night should
cool into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Dry conditions return Wednesday with even warmer temperatures
expected. Highs will range from the mid 70s east to around 80
west. This dry period will come to and end Wed night, as yet
another system approaches from the west and bring more chances of
showers. Low temperatures Wed night should range in the mid 50s to
around 60. Low to medium chances of showers are expected on
Thursday with highs in the mid/upper 70s. Cannot rule out some
thunder Thu afternoon along the AL/TN border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Models hang up this front and weaken it as the upper low continues
to quickly move to the E or ENE into the Atlantic into the end of
the week. Kept mainly 10 to 20 PoP in the forecast Wednesday
through Thursday of next week. Just how warm it will be is the
main question during that period. For now went with upper 70s to
lower 80s. However, highs could be higher, but should be
tempered by on and off mostly cloudy conditions.

Models continue to show a more substantial cut-off low moving into
the Four Corners region Wednesday night. How this feature evolves
will have a big impact on the forecast. Models seem to be coming
into better agreement overall. Most guidance kicks this feature NE
into the central Plains region Thursday night into Friday morning.
A warm front associated with this will likely bring some showers
(outside chance of a few thunderstorms) to the area Thursday
night.

A front or pre-frontal trough axis is shown by most models pushing
out ahead of it producing some convection along it as we move into
Friday over the area and just west of the Ohio Valley region.
Thunderstorms look a bit more likely Friday night into Saturday as
this front is slow to move further east, but a few models show
some instability developing Friday afternoon. Shear should be in
place for some stronger convective development, but instability
and forcing are a bit more questionable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at both
terminals. Scattered clouds this evening will give way to CIGS
between 4000 and 10,000 feet after midnight. LLWS will be close to
criteria, but likely to weak to include. However, we will have to
monitor this in case low level winds pick up more than expected.
Winds will pick up some overnight, but mainly during the day on
Tuesday from the south and southwest to between 10 and 15 kts with
some gusts to around 20 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW