583
FXUS64 KHUN 122351
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

With abundant sunshine, temperatures have reached the lower 80s
in some urban areas. Winds have picked up a bit more than expected
to around 10 to 12 mph from the north or northeast. With some
mixing where temperatures reached the 79 to 83 degree range,
afternoon relative humidity values have dropped to between 30 and
35 percent. We could see a slightly lower drop in relative
humidity a few locations before sunset.

Winds should still decouple this evening and overnight allowing
for at least patchy fog in some locations. Expect more patchy fog,
some possibly dense to return again overnight and into the
daybreak hours in portions of northeastern Marshall county and
central Jackson county. Expect similar lows to last night dropping
into the mid 40s to lower 50s in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Guidance continues to show a large upper level high building over
the Texas and expanding east into the southeastern CONUS early
next week. This should provide a noticeable warming trend pushing
highs into the mid 80s at least towards the middle of next week.
With the amplified nature of the upper ridge in guidance,
wondering if models are using too much climatology to come up with
how warm it will be. The temperatures may be slightly too cool in
current guidance. The upper ridge looks to be the strongest
Tuesday into Wednesday. Wouldn`t be surprised if we see a few
highs close to 90 in reality. The upper level ridging will keep
the Tennessee Valley dry through that period with overnight lows
creeping back up into the mid to upper 50s with increased low
level moisture advection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The upper level ridge does weaken slightly the remainder of next
week, but remains in place over the southeastern CONUS. Highs
should be able to get back into the mid 80s at least. Some cloud
cover might begin to temper highs a tad. Based on the pattern
can`t rule out some highs in the mid to upper 80s though.

Models try to push a longwave trough through the amplified upper
level ridging Friday into Saturday morning. However, most models
have this trough axis falling apart as it attempts to do so.

Models move a potentially more substantial longwave trough axis
and upper low southeast from south central Canada Saturday night
into Sunday. This really seems to displace the upper level ridging
and develop an amplified longwave trough axis and associated cold
front over the southeast. Models have increased shear and forcing in
place ahead of this potential cold front as well. Though
instability will be low, there is enough that a marginal severe
threat might materialize as we move into the day on Sunday.
However, it is too far out to say more than that. Higher shower
and thunderstorm chances were kept in the forecast based on these
expectations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Conditions featuring clear skies and a light NNE wind will
continue at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening, with a minor
increase in thin/high-lvl clouds anticipated prior to sunrise as
winds aloft back from NNE to NNW. With calm winds expected for
much of the overnight period, development of patchy BR/FG will
once again be possible by 4Z (in valleys) and by 8Z (invof the
terminals), and we have maintained a TEMPO group for MVFR vsby
reductions at both airports btwn 8-12Z. A few fair-weather Cu will
develop by 15Z Monday (beneath an increasing coverage of Ci),
with NNE winds strengthening to 5-10 kts around this time, as
well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...70/DD