363
FXUS64 KHUN 011142
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
542 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 336 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Gusty winds 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph will continue into
   the night.

 - Medium to high rain chances of rain into the early afternoon
   today. An isolated thunderstorm or two could occur.

 - Medium to high chances (40-90%) for showers and a few
   thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An area of much needed rainfall was advancing in a west to east
manner across portions of the Tennessee Valley. As of 330 AM CST,
moderate to at times heavy showers were along and west of a line
from near Fayetteville, Madison, and Cullman, moving east around
15 mph. Given stronger winds aloft and elevated instability, some
thunder has been noted over portions of NW Alabama. Rainfall
totals so far have ranged from a trace to a few hundreds where it
has just started, upwards to one inch over parts of NW Alabama.
Have noted amounts of 1.5 to 2" along the TN/MS border between NW
AL and Memphis. Although soil conditions were very dry before
showers commenced, we cannot rule out runoff issues in the heavier
showers especially west of I-65 (where the highest rain amounts
are expected). Otherwise, rainfall totals through late tonight
should range from about 4/10 of an inch over our more eastern
area, with 1.5" over parts of NW Alabama.

Temperatures today should trend a bit cooler due to clouds,
showers, and evaporative cooling that occurs when it begins.
Thus temperatures should range in the mid 50s during episodes of
wetting rain (greater than 0.05" to 0.10") occurring. Current
forecasts maybe too optimistic later today, but cannot rule them
rising to the low/mid 60s in the late afternoon as shower coverage
decreases somewhat.

Reminder - please take notice that the time has changed back from
Central Daylight to Central STANDARD Time as of 2 AM this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The back edge of the weakened longwave trough axis lingers over
the Ohio Valley SSW into NW Alabama through tonight. This could
produce some additional low clouds and light rain or drizzle. Not
much cold air in place behind the associated frontal boundary with
this longwave trough axis. Lows tonight should only drop into the
upper 40s to around 56 degrees in higher elevations. Winds look
to remain breezy with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 25 mph possible.

During the day on Monday, the longwave trough axis dissipates and
a strong upper ridge begins to build over the southeastern states.
Not sure how much sunshine we will see, especially west of the
I-65 corridor on Monday. This will likely help to keep highs from
climbing much above the upper 60s to around 75 degrees in most
locations.

Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridge continues to amplify
and remain over the Tennessee Valley area. At the same time, an
amplified longwave trough axis quickly tries to move east into the
upper ridge. By this time most guidance moves the center of the
upper ridge east over the east coast of North Carolina. The
longwave trough axis moves into the Midwestern states as well.
This should keep deep moisture and forcing well west of the area.
It should be warmer with more sunshine expected. Highs should top
out in the lower to mid 70s at least (could be a bit higher than
models currently think given the strength of the upper ridge).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

We could get some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop as
early as Tuesday evening as the longwave trough axis and
associated surface front push east into eastern Arkansas/western
Mississippi. Better chances for rain look to develop overnight
into Wednesday morning over northwestern Alabama. This still looks
to be a heavy rainfall event given several aspects of the
evolution of this storm system. Overall surface based instability
will be very hard to get and 0-6 km bulk shear does not look quite
as strong as a few days ago. However, PWATS will be high for this
time of year (1.5 to 1.65 inches). Also, during the day on
Wednesday as the front moves closer to the area, upper level
diffluence will be strong west of the I-65 corridor and we will be
in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Also, a 40
knot 850 jet will be over the area as well. This all points to
very strong/deep lift that will be in place, maybe primarily over
areas west of the I-65 corridor into northeastern Mississippi. One
to three inches of rainfall with locally up to 4 inches looks
possible in those areas. It does look like there will be a decent
drop off in rainfall totals near and east of the I-65 corridor
(maybe not even over 1 inch). A few models are hinting that higher
amounts over 5 inches could be possible in NW Alabama through
Wednesday evening. One of the main reasons this setup may occur is
the stoutness of the upper ridge just off the coast of the
Carolinas and Virginia. The upper low butts heads with this
feature during that period before finally moving northward over it
late Wednesday night into Thursday, taking precipitation
northward with it. Wednesday should be cooler again with clouds
and precipitation expected. Highs will only reach the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Not much change into Friday with lingering cloud cover as the
upper low continues to move northeast into the central Great Lakes
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Inclement conditions were occurring, as moderate to heavy showers
traverse the area. Embedded thunderstorms were occurring with the
heavier showers over NW AL. Thunder for the most part should
remain over NW AL where higher instability and shear were present.
The area of convection should continue moving eastward, with VSBY
and/or CIG values reduced to MVFR. Brief reductions to IFR or even
lower cannot be ruled out in the heaviest showers. Shower activity
should gradually wind down as we go into the evening. Have denoted
the lighter precip as drizzle with some fog. Easterly winds of
around 10kt should continue for much of the TAF, although some
higher gusts could occur into the mid afternoon. Winds near the
boundary layer, ~2000ft aloft were in the 35-40kt range from the
SE, therefore have Low-Level Wind Shear indicated at KMSL and
KHSV into the mid afternoon. These stronger winds should slowly
subside as we go into the evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB