746
FXUS64 KHUN 170525
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Slightly cooler conditions today with very dry conditions in
   place, before a further warming trend begins by the middle of
   the week.

 - Low to medium chances of showers starting Tuesday night. Maybe
   a few thunderstorms Tuesday night and again at the end of the
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Several areas continue to see calm winds at this hour. Temperatures
are in the lower 40s (far northeastern Alabama) to around 50
degrees (NW Alabama). Looking at boundary layer advection to around
1000 mb, thinking lower dewpoints will continue to advect into
the area. This will likely allow lows east of I-65 in sheltered
valley locations to drop into the 34 to 36 degree range around
daybreak on Monday.

Guidance does hint at some mid/high clouds moving east into the
area during the midday/afternoon hours today. Not expecting
mostly cloudy conditions, but these clouds could taper highs very
slightly. Weak cold air advection early in the morning should
give way to neutral advection in the afternoon. Expect this to
also temper highs as well. Thus forecasted high temperatures just
below NBM ensemble guidance in most areas. Highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s look reasonable in southern middle Tennessee and
portions of NE Alabama. Further west, highs in the mid to upper
60s look good.

Given the very dry air just off the surface in most guidance,
dewpoints will start dropping significantly just after sunrise
today. Lowered dewpoints close to RAP13 as a result. This will
really drop RH values to between 10 and 15% by the late
morning/early afternoon hours. Winds luckily will be mainly be
between around 5 mph or less, as a large area of high pressure
builds into the area. Regardless, outdoor burning due to the dry
conditions is not advised today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

This large area of high pressure quickly moves east into the Mid-
Atlantic area tonight. Aloft, an upper low moves east from
eastern Nebraska into Iowa. The strong forcing remains well north
of the area close to the upper low. Though cloud cover will likely
increase overnight, no precipitation is expected. Strong warm air
advection begins tonight into Tuesday. This should propel low
temperatures into the lower 40s (east) to lower 50s (west).

As the upper low moves quickly to the E or ESE Tuesday night into
Wednesday, its attendant front, lags behind it. This puts into
question a bit rainfall chances. For now, kept close to NBM
ensemble bringing 20 to 50 PoP into locations near and north of
the Tennessee River then. Some very weak instability is shown by a
few models, but not many. Left thunderstorms out of the forecast
for now, but they may need to be added in subsequent shifts.
With warm air and moisture advection continuing in the boundary
layer, lows should continue to warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Models hang up this front and weaken it as the upper low continues
to quickly move to the E or ENE into the Atlantic into the end of
the week. Kept mainly 10 to 20 PoP in the forecast Wednesday
through Thursday of next week. Just how warm it will be is the
main question during that period. For now went with upper 70s to
lower 80s. However, highs could be higher, but should be
tempered by on and off mostly cloudy conditions.

Models continue to show a more substantial cut-off low moving into
the Four Corners region Wednesday night. How this feature evolves
will have a big impact on the forecast. Models seem to be coming
into better agreement overall. Most guidance kicks this feature NE
into the central Plains region Thursday night into Friday morning.
A warm front associated with this will likely bring some showers
(outside chance of a few thunderstorms) to the area Thursday
night.

A front or pre-frontal trough axis is shown by most models pushing
out ahead of it producing some convection along it as we move into
Friday over the area and just west of the Ohio Valley region.
Thunderstorms look a bit more likely Friday night into Saturday as
this front is slow to move further east, but a few models show
some instability developing Friday afternoon. Shear should be in
place for some stronger convective development, but instability
and forcing are a bit more questionable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clear skies
tonight will be followed by a few clouds streaming overhead by
Monday afternoon. In addition, easterly winds to around 5 knots or
so are forecast through the day before becoming light once again
in the evening. Winds will also shift to be southeasterly by this
time as well.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26