046
FXUS64 KHUN 181106
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
506 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and a few storms
   returns to the forecast this evening and overnight, with the
   highest chances over southern middle Tennessee.

 - Higher rain and storm chances (60-80%) are forecast on Friday
   for all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Cloud cover has been slow to move into north Alabama overnight,
as shown by current nighttime microphysics satellite imagery.
Therefore, it has cooled a bit more than expected, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees at present. The
exception is northeast Alabama and the higher terrain, where
temperatures have plummeted into the upper 30s. Thus, have
adjusted temperatures through the early morning hours to account
for this. Otherwise, the forecast and current thinking have not
changed.

A surface low pressure system over the central CONUS will
continue to shift eastward through the day today, with a cold
front making its way towards the ArkLaTex region. This looks to
eventually expand northeast and stall over the lower Ohio Valley
as the low pressure system weakens. For most of today, no rain is
forecast. It will be breezy, with sustained south southwest winds
around 10-15 mph and wind gusts between 15-25 mph. However, we
will continue to keep an eye on the aforementioned front as well
as the potential for rain chances this evening and overnight.

Guidance continues to show ample shear, but instability remains
the limiting factor - will we have enough and will any be surface-
based or will it be elevated? In addition, most of the forcing
looks to be displaced to our north and northwest tonight. At this
time, no severe weather is anticipated for our local area. But, as
the previous shift mentioned, the displaced forcing to the north
should keep the greatest chances of showers and any storms over
Tennessee (including southern middle Tennessee). While 40-60%
chances are forecast for these areas, 20-40% exist for northern
Alabama. Overall, the consensus in the guidance seems to be that
if any precipitation moves into our area, it will likely be
between 9 PM and midnight over northwest Alabama and into southern
middle Tennessee. These showers will then progress southeast
through the night, tapering off by late tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

Lastly, temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with
highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Although, the higher terrain
of northeast Alabama may be a touch cooler, in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. With increasing moisture, lows tonight will be warmer
as well, only decreasing into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The short term forecast will live in between two systems. The
passage of the weak cold front on Tuesday night will have minimal
impacts to our high and low temperatures through the rest of the
week. Rather, a brief bout of high pressure will build in and
support highs in the mid to high 70s each day with lows in the
60s. These high temps will be present despite prolonged partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as both post frontal and pre frontal
clouds plague the local area.

By Thursday our attention will shift west as our next system
builds over the western CONUS. A mid level low will deepen and
translate east through mid week. An associated short wave will
ripple ahead of it through the TN Valley on Thursday producing
low rain and storm chances (10-30%) for areas north of the TN
Valley. While forcing will be weak, the high boundary layer
moisture paired with any instability may be enough to support a
few rumbles of thunder with any showers on Thursday. Even with the
mostly clouds countdowns highs will be in the mid to high 70s
area wide making for a muggy end to the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Our main feature in the long term will be the passage of an upper
low and associated surface cold front on Friday. While it is
still a little too early to nail down specifics, a few trends are
becoming apparent. Boundary moisture looks to be plentiful on
Friday with at least some instability present. This is favorable
for some stronger storms with the passage of the front. However,
the weakening low calls into question how much forcing the front
will maintain by the time it reaches our area. Without any
significant forcing, strong to severe storms will be less likely.
The front looks to pass late Friday evening into overnight,
potentially limiting the amount of instability present. We will
keep an eye on forecast details for this feature as it draws
closer.

Weak riding will build in behind the front inducing NW flow. This
will drop our temps to the mid to high 60s during the day and 40s
overnight. Unfortunately enough moisture looks to linger behind
the front to keep partly cloudy skies and low (10-30%) rain
chances each day through the weekend and into the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR and breezy conditions are anticipated through the day, with
sustained south southwest winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to
between 15-20 knots. Winds will then slacken this evening, but
chances of showers and a few storms increase (especially to the
north over Tennessee). Low chances exist for both terminals
through the evening and tonight, but will taper off late tonight
into early Wednesday morning. By this time, low CIGs to MVFR are
forecast to take hold. Lastly, we`ll keep an eye on the potential
for LLWS; but, confidence is low in its occurrence at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...26