685
FXUS64 KHUN 141739
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Shower activity traversing the region was increasing in coverage
and intensity as instability increases from daytime heating. More
lightning strikes were also noted. With more clouds than sun in
most spots, 11 AM temperatures have risen into the lower 80s with
S-SW winds of 5-15 mph, and some higher gusts.

Not many changes will be needed to the general forecast for the
Tennessee Valley. An approaching mid-level trough axis, along with
upper level support will allow for numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms into the early evening. The ARW Convective
Allowing Model, as well as the RAP seem to have a reasonably good
handle with current shower coverage. The FV3 and HRRR CAMs were
more subdued with earlier development, but did show more than
the other models in the later afternoon and this evening.

Overall, "general" thunderstorm intensity is expected into the
evening with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy
rainfall the main threats. Of those threats, those with outdoor
plans should be alert for developing and/or nearby storms, and be
prepared to go to safe shelter should storms approach your
location. Areas that receive heavy rainfall (especially in/near
locations that were impacted yesterday) would be more susceptible
for ponding of water, as well as a flash flooding risk.

Shower/thunderstorm coverage and intensity should slowly diminish
this evening with a loss of daytime heating, and passage of the
strongest upper level support. A mild and muggy night is expected
with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Lighter winds in the late
night could lead to the development of fog in the overnight. Fog
would be more of a possibility if cloud cover is less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

More showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as daytime
heating of a moist lower atmosphere lead to more instability.
Shower coverage should have lesser coverage than the case today. A
risk of locally heavy rainfall will keep a low flash flooding
threat in. Highs to start the new week should rise into the mid
80s. Lows Sunday night should range in the mid 60s to around 70.
Similar conditions with lower rain chances are forecast Monday and
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Guidance from the most recent suite of global models suggests
that deep-layer southwest flow will gradually strengthen across
the TN Valley throughout the first half of the extended period, as
a pronounced shortwave trough (riding along the southern flank of
the stronger mid-latitude westerlies to our north) will initiate
a deepening surface low that will track from the MO Valley on
Wednesday into the Canadian maritime provinces by the end of the
period. However, at this point, shear appears unsupportive of
organized convection through mid-week, with a fairly high coverage
of mainly diurnally-initiated convection anticipated both
Tuesday/Wednesday. There are some indications that the risk for an
organized/severe convective system (dropping into the region from
the northwest) may increase at some point on Thursday as westerly
flow aloft will strengthen with the passage of the mid-latitude
shortwave trough to our north. However, in the wake of this
disturbance, a strengthening 500-mb high is predicted to build
across much of the southeastern CONUS, resulting in lower rain
chances and hotter temperatures (with lingering high dewpoints)
from Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Unsettled weather is expected into the evening across the
Tennessee Valley, with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of
the storms could become strong and electrically active with gusty
winds approaching 50 kts, very heavy rainfall, and small hail.
VSBY and/or CIG reductions to MVFR and lower are likely in and
near the heavier showers. Shower coverage should diminish as we
go into the late evening and overnight. A return of lower level
moisture will bring MVFR CIGs before daybreak Sunday. Winds should
stay up for the most part above 3kt, which should keep widespread
fog development minimized in the predawn and early Sun morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RSB