087
FXUS64 KHUN 170701
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
201 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Showers and storms fired up along a stalled boundary that
stretched from southern TN across NW AL overnight. This caused
storms to train and with with high rain rates, caused minor
flooding to flash flooding as 1-3" fell with locally higher
amounts, by 1 am. The convection has weakened but has only
scooted eastward a tad. Will be monitoring for any redevelopment
into the early morning hours.The batch of cloud cover associated
with the storms will help limit fog development, however if it
diminishes, there is still a chance for last minute development
before sunrise especially for those that have recently received
rainfall.

The other weather highlight for today is the heat. Daytime highs
will be in the low to mid 90s but the lingering high dewpoints
will push us into making it feel more like it`s 100-107 degrees.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory is out for today as well until 7pm for
NW AL and portions of southern middle TN. Low chance of 20-30%
diurnally driven convection is expected this afternoon. A few
storms have the potential to become strong, producing gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. So stay weather aware and practice sun and
heat safety today! For more safety info, visit our webpage and
social media pages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Convection will wane by the late evening and another very mild
night is forecast with lows in the mid 70s once again. Deeper
tropical moisture will begin to filer into the region Friday into
Saturday as a weak area of low pressure along the northern Gulf
pivots into the lower Mississippi Valley. Medium chances for
showers and storms (50-60%) are forecast both Friday and Saturday
as this feature meander into the Mid South region. Localized heavy
rainfall and flooding will be the main concern with this activity
given the slow storm motions and deep moisture in place, but gusty
winds will also be a concern with the strongest activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A broad area of high pressure will will gradually begin to become
established over the Deep South early next week. However, with
ample moisture underneath this ridge, low to medium (30-60%)
chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast each
day. As we trend toward mid to late week, this ridge will amplify
and become more established over the region. Confidence is
increasing that another heatwave will begin to develop late in the
period as highs in the mid 90s will be common (with some upper 90s
more likely in northwest Alabama) by Wednesday. Combined with
higher dewpoints, heat indices near above 105 degrees may become
more probable. Thus, additional heat products may be needed during
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. However, a cluster of TSRA in
northwest Alabama may create localized MVFR conditions through 09z
at times at both terminals and have included a TEMPO for this.
AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky and light southerly winds
are forecast on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Moderate and High Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwest and portions of
north-central Alabama as well as southern middle Tennessee in a High
Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 24th and 25th.
Additionally, the CPC has included northeast and portions of north-
central Alabama in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures
for July 24th through 30th. Temperatures above 97 degrees F are
possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP