067
FXUS64 KHUN 031141
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
541 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Southeasterly winds of 15-25 MPH are expected today, and a few
   showers may spread northward into the region late in the
   afternoon.

 - The coverage of showers (and some thunderstorms) will increase
   this evening before becoming widespread Wednesday morning.
   Locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding during this
   period (particularly across northwest AL, where several inches
   of rain were observed Sunday morning).

 - A second episode of showers (and some thunderstorms) may occur
   with the passage of a cold front Thursday night/Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A few high altitude clouds oriented in a north to south manner,
associated with an upper level trough were traversing eastward
across the greater Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, quiet weather
prevailed with 2 AM temperatures in the low/mid 60s, which are
very mild for this time of year. Surface high pressure off of the
Mid Atlantic coast was producing 5-15 mph SE winds across the
area. To our west, a system that moved across the Intermountain
West yesterday was now east of the Rockies. A surface low
associated with that system over Kansas, should move towards the
NE, reaching the Great Lakes this evening. A cold front trailing
south of this cyclone should be nearing the Mid Mississippi River
Valley late this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms were in progress along and preceding this boundary,
from western Missouri, to east of Dallas, and near Del Rio.

Before the front arrives on Wed, we should have dry weather for
much of Election Day. With more sun than clouds, expect another
warm for early Nov day, with high temperatures heating into the
mid/upper 70s. Normal highs for today are in the upper 60s. Breezy
conditions are expected in the late morning and afternoon, with
southeast winds of 15-25 mph with some stronger gusts. Showers and
thunderstorms with the front should be nearing our western areas
in the late afternoon. It is a tough call regarding exactly when
showers will begin over our area. Many of the higher resolution
models were showing mainly areas of northern Alabama west of I-65
getting light showers after 3 PM, while the longer scale models
delayed showers until the evening and beyond. In any case, the
heaviest rainfall from the next system should occur later tonight
into Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Latest short range model data suggests that a mid-level shortwave
trough (initially located across the MO Valley) will deepen into
a closed cyclone as it advances further northeastward into the
western Great Lakes by 12Z Thursday. As this occurs, the related
surface low will also intensify as it lifts northward across the
Upper MS Valley, and the SSW low-level jet will likely reach peak
intensity (40-50 knots) from tomorrow night-early Wednesday
morning. Large scale ascent (as a result of strengthening and
vertically veering wind profiles) will be maximized tomorrow
night, and this should support a gradual increase in the coverage
and intensity of initially weak convection in the vicinity of a
low-level confluence axis during the evening hours tomorrow.

As this activity expands and spreads further northeastward, a
more focused band of increasingly outflow-driven showers and
thunderstorms will be approaching our region from the west and
should enter the CWFA around or shortly after 6Z, before its
forward speed decelerates in the 6-12Z timeframe. Although
forecast soundings suggest that CAPE will slowly increase to
250-500 J/kg as dewpoints rise into the m60s during the overnight
hours, forecast soundings indicate that the effective parcel
inflow layer will remain slightly elevated. However, should this
change, hodograph length/curvature in the lowest 3km would support
a risk for mesocyclone development (particularly in the vicinity
of the more focused band of convection across the west).
Otherwise, the risk for flooding/flash flooding is expected to
quickly increase early Wednesday morning (especially across
northwest AL, where several inches of rain fell Sunday morning).

During the day on Wednesday, the band of outflow-driven
convection will continue to spread slowly eastward across our
forecast area, but should progressively diminish in intensity as
the low-level jet veers and weakens. Although precipitation will
end for most of the region by 0Z Thursday, there is some concern
that a weak cold front (attached to an occluding low over the
western Great Lakes) will stall before exiting our southeastern
zones, perhaps leading to a continuation of clouds and a few
showers in this region both Wednesday night and Thursday. By
Thursday night, deep layer ascent will increase once again as a
secondary mid-level wave tracks eastward from the southern Plains
into the OH Valley (in the flow around a closed low to its
northeast). If northward moisture transport is sufficient, this
setup could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms prior to
daybreak Friday. Regarding temperatures, highs will fall back into
the l-m 70s Wednesday/Thursday, as overnight lows drop into the
u40s-l50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We will end the work week with the passage of an upper wave early
Friday morning, with some uncertainty as to how much moisture
advection will happen ahead of this system. The GFS is a bit more
aggressive with moisture and would result in some light rain
during the early hours on Friday, while the ECMWF is drier and
would likely only result in increasing clouds. For this reason we
will stick with blended guidance capping PoPs near 20%, and any
rainfall that does occur should begin clearing by late Friday
morning. Dry weather will follow as high pressure spreads
southward from the Midwest in the wake of a cold front. High temps
will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s behind this front with
northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We should
also see clouds thinning through the morning hours on Friday
resulting in pleasant fall conditions by Friday afternoon.

Overall the weekend looks nice as zonal flow persists aloft. High
temps will reach the low to mid 60s each day with overnight lows
in the 30s to lower 40s. In fact, we will likely see our first
frost of the season in some locations, especially those north of
the TN River and in the higher terrain where current forecast
temperatures drop to 32 degrees. This will be a trend to watch
over the coming days, but there are still fairly significant
differences regarding the upper and mid level patterns in long
term guidance. Models do agree that by early next week upper flow
will shift to the north as a stronger trough axis shifts east over
the area, reinforcing high pressure and keeping dry, near
seasonable conditions over the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Surface high pressure off of the east coast continued to provide a
SE flow across the TN Valley. Winds should increase into the
10-20kt range later this morning into tonight. A cold front
extending from the Mid MS Valley to South TX will advance
eastward, resulting in showers starting over NW AL late in the
afternoon. Widespread shower chances will be realized into the
overnight. A few t-storms looks probable in the later night,
which was noted in a PROB30 for the late night. With shower
activity, expect CIG/VSBY to be reduced to MVFR with even lower
minimums due to heavier shower/t-torm activity. Although not in
the TAF, nearby convection could produce wind brief wind gusts
above 25kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB