359
FXUS64 KHUN 171402
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
902 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 902 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A deep layer shortwave was pushing east through the lower MS
Valley this morning. This was coincident with PWs of 1.75-2.0
inches, ample MUCAPE and increasing southwesterly 850 mb flow of
30-35kt. As low clouds tend to scatter this morning, daytime
heating will increase substantially and allow SBCAPEs to climb
into the 2-3k J/Kg range. Deep layer bulk shear values will remain
below 30kt, but with low level flow increasing and moderate CAPE,
expect storms to produce gusty winds of 30-40kt rather easily.
With the high level PWs, heavy downpours will occur and brief
excessive rain could occur resulting in ponding and minor
flooding. The shortwave will lift rapidly northeast later this
afternoon, with QG forcing becoming diminished. Expect a drop off
on convection with loss of heating this evening. The clouds and
early onset thunderstorms should keep afternoon highs in the lower
to middle 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 902 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A lingering ribbon of vorticity and convergence trailing back
behind the shortwave may continue to bring thunderstorms to the
area into early Wednesday, particularly in our eastern counties.
This should trail off by midday to mid afternoon. Deep low level
southwest flow will persist through Thursday, keeping high
amounts of moisture and warm air in the region. A weakening cold
front will drop southeast Thursday morning bringing a large scale
linear MCS from KY through TN, northwest AL then west into AR.
This MCS will sag south through the TN valley Thursday morning
into midday. Gusty to damaging winds and heavy rain will be the
primary hazards with this MCS. The outflow boundary will shift
south as the shortwave trough shifts southeast. The actual cold
front washes out with high pressure ridging building into the
southeast and central Appalachians. A few residual showers and
thunderstorms at the tail end of the outflow boundary arching
northwest through AL into MS and west TN could slip into our
north AL counties Friday, but at this point the chances appear to
be low. High temperatures on Friday will bump back up into the
upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

After the frontal passage Thursday night, dry air filters in from
the northwest. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in
from the west this weekend, allowing a warming trend through the
weekend into early next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast
to warm into the low to mid 90s by Sunday and Monday with heat
indices near 100-105 degrees. If trends continue on the track they
are on, heat products may be considered if heat indices are
forecast to exceed 105 degrees. Overnight lows are forecast to
drop into the low to mid 70s, which will not provide much relief
from heat. Along with the heat concern, daily thunderstorm
chances (30% or less) continue- peaking during the afternoon
hours. However, heat will be the primary concern heading into the
weekend into early next week. Those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration will likely be affected in addition to
heat sensitive industries and infrastructure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation
forecast reasoning as stratus clouds are currently providing MVFR
cigs at the terminals, and chances for SHRA/TSRA have already
begun to increase across northwest AL. A subtle sfc trough will
sustain clusters of SHRA/TSRA throughout the day as it progresses
eastward, and TEMPO groups have been included at MSL/15-19Z and
HSV/17-21Z to address MVFR impacts from TSRA and potential
issuance of AWWs. Although conds will temporarily improve in the
wake of diurnal convection, latest model guidance suggests that
another low stratus layer will evolve across the region very late
this evening and continue through the end of the period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70