406
FXUS64 KHUN 301034
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
534 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 936 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

  - Medium to high (40-80%) chances of showers and thunderstorms will
    return to the forecast late this week into the weekend, with
    locally heavy rainfall the main concern.

  - Temperatures will be on the rise through Friday, with
    increasing humidity yielding a Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2/4)
    in some areas Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Tranquil conditions are once again ongoing this morning with
morning temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, which is running a
bit warmer than the previous few morning. This is in part to weak
southeasterly sfc flow advecting in better moisture. As the upper
level ridge expands eastward today, expect another mild afternoon
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the aformentioned
moisture advection, dewpoints should not mix out nearly as much
today and remain in the lower 50s. Therefore, heat index values
will remain near the air temperatures this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to yield dry
conditions through Thursday as highs rise into the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 60s. A pattern change is in store Friday as
ridging shifts to the east and an upper level trough pushes into
the area from the west. Southerly flow will bring increased
moisture with rising dew points ahead of an approaching cold
front. Subsequently, low to medium rain chances (20-40%) will
begin Friday afternoon and increase through the weekend. More on
this in the long term below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

By the start of the long term we will be beginning a pattern
change. To our west, an upper level trough will begin its swing
through the TN Valley. At the surface, an accompanying cold front
will be pushing east. Several days of weak WAA will be present
along and ahead of this system. As such, come Friday night we will
have an incredibly moist environment present, priming us for a
weekend of flooding concerns.

Going into the weekend we will see dew points in the 70s and PWATs
above the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology (2"+). This
environment will be favorable for efficient rainfall production. With
persistent forcing from Friday night through Sunday afternoon, high
rain chances (60-80%) are in the forecast all weekend. Models
indicate 2-4 inches of rain from Friday through Monday. Flooding
concerns will arise if periods of heavy rainfall cause significant
amounts of rain to fall in a short period of time. As such, WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall for
portions of the area on Saturday into Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains regarding the QPF totals due to the fact the front and
parent trough will be weakening as they move through. Should the
system come through weaker than currently forecast, QPF amounts
could trend down.

The front is currently forecast to pass during the day on Sunday,
however low rain chances and cloud cover look to linger behind the
front through Tuesday. The lingering cloud cover paired with the slow
infiltration of cooler and drier air from the north will keep highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s for the start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions with light winds continue through the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH