949
FXUS64 KHUN 190605
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
105 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The thunderstorm activity seen over the area this afternoon and
evening has mostly subsided for now, and our attention turns to
the north as strong to severe storms have developed in central TN.
This activity is forecast to remain to our north and west through
the late evening to early overnight hours, but the forecast
becomes a lot more uncertain around the midnight timeframe. An
upper trough axis will pivot through the Great Lakes and OH River
Valley overnight, and synoptic forcing will increase as this
happens. An additional round of thunderstorms is forecast to
develop to our west over the AR area later tonight. This activity
is expected to eventually congeal into a line/MCS that may impact
at least western portions of the forecast area during the early
morning hours. A current look at the 00z CAMs shows that models
are struggling to initialize the current convective scenario and
are of little reliability in this forecast.

The current thinking is that thunderstorms will approach NW AL
around 4am but some guidance suggests that we may begin to see
thunderstorms enter the area as early as midnight. Although these
storms will be elevated, MLCAPE values will range between
1500-2500 J/kg and will be supportive of a few strong to severe
storms, especially within bowing segments. We will continue to
monitor the activity to our north and west closely overnight
should they pose a threat for damaging winds and flooding over the
Tennessee Valley. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and
occasionally breezy southerly winds with lows in the upper
60s/lower 70s.

This round of thunderstorms is expected to clear the area by the
late morning, but one last round could develop during peak
heating hours of the afternoon. Models vary fairly significantly
on thunderstorm coverage during this time so we have stuck with
the NBM`s 60-70% PoP with the highest chances east of I-65. Some
of these thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns.
Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow with
highs in the low to mid 80s in the east and mid 80s in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The aforementioned trough will continue to shift to our east and
upper ridging will begin to build in from the west. This will
result in a drier but increasingly warmer airmass as we head into
the weekend. Highs will rebound into the upper 80s/lower 90s on
Friday but drier air will keep heat indices from reaching above
the low 90s. Saturday will feel much warmer as temperatures
approach the mid 90s and increasing humidity brings heat indices
near or just above the 100 degree mark. It does not look like we
will meet Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees as of now, but
Advisories will likely be needed as we head into next week. More
on that in the following section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

At the start of the long term ridging will be solidly in place
centered over the TN Valley. Long term models are in very good
agreement regarding the location and strength of the ridge through
the long term, most supporting 500 MB heights nearing 600 dam by
Tuesday just to our NE. This pattern will be incredibly supportive of
hot and humid conditions across the TN Valley. Through the start of
the work week, SW flow along surface high pressure will support dew
points in the 70s. This paired with daily high temps in the mid to
high 90s will make for apparent temperatures near and just above 100
from Sunday through Wednesday. The repetitive days of highs in the
90s and apparent temps near 100 will push our heat risk into the
Major category (3/4) by early next week. This level of heat risk
affects anyone without proper cooling and hydration. That being
said, please make sure to begin practicing heat safety. This
includes using proper protection from the sun such as sunscreen
and hats as well as ensuring water and cooling are accessible
throughout the day for those partaking in outdoor activities.

While SW flow will be supportive of afternoon thunderstorms each day,
the strong ridging that will be in place is causing some uncertainty
regarding this potential. It will be quite challenging for any storms
to initiate under so much subsidence, thus only a low chance of rain
and storms have been maintained in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conds are currently observed at the HSV/MSL terminals,
featuring few Cu and sct Ci with a lgt SSW wind. However, it still
appears likely that a low stratus deck will evolve by 9Z, in
advance of several organizing clusters of TSRA extending from
northeastern AR across western TN and into southwestern KY.
Present indications are that this activity will spread east-
southeastward with time, primarily impacting the terminals from
11-15Z (but potentially continuing into the late morning hours,
before shifting further southeastward and away from the airports
this aftn). Additional showers (and perhaps a few storms) may
redevelop along a slow-moving and weak cold front to our NW late
this aftn, but confidence in precipitation beyond 21Z is too low
to include in the current TAFs. As skies clear later this evening
and winds become calm, patchy BR/FG may begin to develop shortly
before the end of the forecast period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD